Some Meld Statistics

[mickmackusa]

Raw Meld Probabilities from http://www.powerpinochle.com/forum/showt...28#pid3628
[attachment=42]

[rakbeater]

I'd love to know what the average meld in a hand would be that is not meldable...ie under 16 or 18?

[ToreadorElder]

So, assume partner passed as opener, and you're considering your actions. There are 2 questions:

#1: if you have less than 20 meld (but presumably a big hand), what's the probability that partner will have enough meld to get you on the board? It's not the average that he generally holds that matters. If you have 14, it's...how likely is it that he'll have 6?

#2: for your bidding purposes, you know your meld, and estimate your play points from your tricks. That's your total. The gap between that and the bid, is the support you'll need from your partner...whether you need meld or not.

OK, been thinking of doing this anyway. I'll run a breakdown *every 2points * through 20 and report in a cumulative way. Won't take long to tweak the code.

[ToreadorElder]

And here they are. Numbers are the probabilities you'll see at least the given level of raw meld, or support. This is based on 100M hands again.

at least 0 raw 1 sup 1
at least 2 raw 0.9848 sup 1
at least 4 raw 0.9231 sup 0.9997
at least 6 raw 0.8293 sup 0.9975
at least 8 raw 0.7416 sup 0.987
at least 10 raw 0.6572 sup 0.9565
at least 12 raw 0.5764 sup 0.8974
at least 14 raw 0.4634 sup 0.8155
at least 16 raw 0.3566 sup 0.7247
at least 18 raw 0.2693 sup 0.6346
at least 20 raw 0.2027 sup 0.5473
at least 25 raw 0.1624 sup 0.4618