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Pinochle Percentages Trivia - Win A Free Book!
#2
Not hard to get very close by analyzing the distributions of the outstanding cards.

On the play of the 3rd ace, there are 9 cards outstanding. The 3rd ace will be ruffed happens only when the distribution is 9-0-0, 8-1-0, 7-2-0, or 6-3-0. There are 1533 cases, out of 19683 hands, so there are 18150 cases where it wins. 92.2%, approximately. NOTE: this has a slight error. The odds that someone actually has the remaining 9 or even 8 or 7 cards in the suit is overstated; it's a vacant places situation. But it doesn't throw the computation off by enough to matter.

For the 4th ace to win, the distributions must be 5-2-2, 4-3-2, or 3-3-3. These are the most common cases, tho, with 11508 total. Thus, the probability the 4th ace will win, is ~58.5%.

For the 5th round to win, the suit has to be 3-3-3. 1680 cases, therefore 8.5% chance.

As a sidebar, why are you cashing the aces first? Smile
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RE: Pinochle Percentages Trivia - Win A Free Book! - ToreadorElder - 08-19-2012, 01:02 AM

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