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bidding with a looooong suit (10 trump)
#1
Recently I ran into an interesting hand with a very long suit, 10 trump and a few aces, with 17 meld assuming hearts is trump:

KC KC QC AD AD TD KD JD JD JS AH AH TH KH QH QH QH JH JH JH

Question: How high can I bid with this hand? I should easily be able to get 20 points during the card play from this hand. So I think I only need to be concerned about the lack of meld. I need a good estimate for how many points I can take to make up for the lack of meld.

The formula that I use for computing number of projected points that I can win is: ((# of trump held) - (missing Aces of trump) + (non-trump Aces))*2.4 = (10 - 2 + 2)*2.4 = 24. I believe this formula is commonly used; please forgive me if I'm not crediting the person who first suggested it! (It was first introduced to me by TigreLXIX.)

My meld is 17, assuming the run in Hearts, so add 17 to 24 and I get 41.

With no info from my partner, I will assume (??) 8 meld from him: 41+8=49. Question: how much meld should I assume that my partner will contribute?

Question: how many points should I assume I can get from my partner during the play of cards? Should I assume 3 (???) tricks maybe? Then 3*2.4 from p gives about 7 points there. 49+7 is 56. With this hand, I should bid no higher than 56.

Maybe add 2 points if I assume I can take the last trick, so perhaps go to 58. Question: when, if ever, do you assume you will take the last trick?

Below is the hand history. The player bid to 60, their team made 59, and got set. Presumably the card play is poor (I was south, playing against bots)...

But forget about the card playing. I'm mainly interested in how to decide how high to bid. I'd love to get feedback on my questions above. If this type of hand has been discussed before, please point to the discussion. I did a little searching but didn't find anything similar.

Code:
% Format "PPN 1.0"
% Site "worldofcardgames.com"
% Date "2017.06.04"
% ID "14966221516580"
% Players "N-B- E-hi S-ma W-Ca"
% tableid "e8894408-addd-4798-89b2-a30dcdc51413"

[GameScores "0:0"]
[Deal "S:CAAATKJJDATJSAAATTKQJJHT CATTQJDTKQQJSATKQQJHATKJ CTKQQJDATKKQQSTKKQHATKKQ CKKQDAATKJJSJHAATKQQQJJJ"]
[Auction "W:50 51 Pass Pass 52 53 - - 54 55 - - 56 57 - - 58 59 - - 60 Pass"]
[Contract "W 60 H"]
[Melds "6:CDJSKQH 12:CJDKQJSKQJHJ 26:CKQDKKQQSKQHKQ 17:CKQDSHATKQJ"]
[Play "W"]
AD JD KD QD W2
AD TD TD QD W3
AH TH KH QH W3
AH JC TH KH W3
JD AD JD KD N2
AC QC KC QC N2
AC JC TC KC N3
AC TC JC KC N3
AS QS KS JS N2
AS QS KS KH W3
JH JC AH KH E2
AC QC TH KC W3
JH JS JH TH S1
AD JD KS QD S2
TD KD TC QD S3
TS JH QS KS W2
QH JS TC AH S2
KD TD TS TS W4
[MeldScores "32:29"]
[PlayScores "20:30"]
[Result "SET"]
[HandScores "52:-60"]
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#2
What a doozy!  I am sure North did NOT want to fold that very strong hand  (9 trumps & 7 aces).

Where did the last two tricks go in the hand history?  (My goodness I love that Hand Animator!!! ...I really should try to refine it and develop it for the new notation one of these days)

You only missed saving by one.  I'd say that the error was not in your bidding; 60 is justified.  North/South would have pulverized East/West in spades.

Also, South dropped the ball by not meld bidding the Roundhouse.  Truthfully, North should have won the Auction for 65, called spades, conserved clubs, lead the AD , exited in diamonds (longest suit not being conserved), then went on to mop up when East threw the  AC .
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#3
(06-05-2017, 09:59 PM)mickmackusa Wrote:  Where did the last two tricks go in the hand history?

Ah that was a TRAM. There's no way to show that in the animator (which I agree is a very cool tool!). The last two tricks went to West, who had the two remaining trump cards.

Here are the beginner's hand classifiers for each hand:

North: http://www.powerpinochle.com/forum/begin...HT&chart=2 - Declarer hand
East: http://www.powerpinochle.com/forum/begin...KJ&chart=2 - Pass
South: http://www.powerpinochle.com/forum/begin...KQ&chart=2 - Meld hand (26 meld)
West: http://www.powerpinochle.com/forum/begin...JJ&chart=2 - Declarer hand

(06-05-2017, 09:59 PM)mickmackusa Wrote:  You only missed saving by one.  I'd say that the error was not in your bidding; 60 is justified.  North/South would have pulverized East/West in spades.

OK but why is 60 justified for this hand, and not 65 or 58, given no other info from my teammate? What's wrong with my computation?

(06-05-2017, 09:59 PM)mickmackusa Wrote:  Also, South dropped the ball by not meld bidding the Roundhouse.

Yeah, that was my bad Smile (For anyone unfamiliar with the jargon, like myself, a round house is "marriages around", both kings and queens around).
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#4
Hey, mick, FYI...

I copied the text, unintentionally including the "play pino at WoCG" below.  Pasted into hand animator.  It hangs completely.

Starting with the bidding.  I have no problem with the first bids of West or North, but after that.....  To start with, after their partners pass, both should NOT creep in the bidding.  No meld, but massive playing strength.  Don't bid slow!

Oh, and before we go on...WHY IS SOUTH PASSING????  2 aces and 26 meld????  This isn't a story if South gives meld.  OHH...I see.  It was you.  Testing the bots out, I presume.  Never mind. Smile

But with those passes...what are their max bids?

West has 11 tricks.  8 from trump, 3 more from diamonds.  Probably 4 more, but calling it 11 allows for bad distribution to cost a trick along the way.  This is a two-suited hand.  17 meld, 27-28 from play.  Says you're at 44-45.  Assume 15 total from partner, so West's max is 60.  So at his second turn, he should BID 60.

North was a bloody gutless coward.  That's an insane, huge MONSTER of a hand.  8 trump, 1 diamond, and 5 near-certain clubs.  6 is likely.  So at least 14 tricks, which is 35.  31 should be a dead solid lock.  19 meld plus 35 play is 54.  65 is easy;  I'd feel free to bid 70.  And not apologize.  You MUST bid these hands.

The problem, I expect, is recognizing the hand type, then understanding how to play it.  You actually can't separate how to evaluate this hand type, from how to play it.  Marya, I would change one behavior immediately...never start with trump aces with anything less than a 10 card suit, with 5 or more aces and 10s, or 11 with 4 of the tops.  Yeah, there are probably exceptions but they'll be rare.  When I say West has 8 trump tricks, it's by starting with a LOW trump, not the aces.  When declarer strips his trump aces, he turns OTHER trump 10's into tricks...not his.  Note that after trick 4, South has been handed a trump trick that isn't deserved.  By cashing the aces, West has turned an 11-12 trick hand into an 8-9 trick hand.  And that is not enough to justify 60 on.  9 tricks is about 22;  with 17 meld, that's only 39.  Needs 20 from partner.

West wants 11 or 12 tricks from hearts and diamonds.  His diamond suit is quite good enough so he doesn't want diamond *ruffs*.  He wants opps to feel compelled to cash their diamond aces, then he has the top 3 diamonds, and his 6th may well set up.  (Run lots of trumps out and force discards.  Anyone with 6 diamonds to start with, will have problems.)  So at trick 1, West leads  QH .  If NS wins it, ugh.  Oh well.  Hopefully they'll cash diamonds.  If East wins it, bye-bye some black suit losers, hopefully.

Note that North's situation is exactly the same.  North's hand is worth 15 by NOT cashing.  It drops to 13 by cashing black aces...so he'll still pull 31.  North has a much better excuse;  his suits are much stronger.  But he's still losing 2 tricks.

So, when I say you can expect those tricks, it is on the assumption that you will play it properly.
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#5
(06-08-2017, 08:17 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  I copied the text, unintentionally including the "play pino at WoCG" below.  Pasted into hand animator.  It hangs completely.

User error  Tongue Mick I hope I'm not messing with your server; I "assumed' this was all a frontend app without looking. I tried adding "xyz" to the end of the hand animator input, and that did not hang it. I tried adding "abc!" and that did not actually hang it, either. I also tested with "abc abc!" and that works. But for some reason adding "Play Pinochle at World of Card Games!" does cause the page to hang (in Chrome and Firefox on Linux).

(06-08-2017, 08:17 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  Testing the bots out, I presume.  Never mind. Smile

I was indeed testing!

(06-08-2017, 08:17 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  North was a bloody gutless coward.  That's an insane, huge MONSTER of a hand.  8 trump, 1 diamond, and 5 near-certain clubs.  6 is likely.  So at least 14 tricks, which is 35.  31 should be a dead solid lock.  19 meld plus 35 play is 54.  65 is easy;  I'd feel free to bid 70.  And not apologize.  You MUST bid these hands.

Yup he was a coward. I've got the bots patched up now so that the bot will go to 65 but will not go to 70. The change will be applied with the next update, probably next weekend.

West now goes to 57 and stops, which is maybe a mistake, but given their not-so-excellent playing skills, it's probably okay for now.

(06-08-2017, 08:17 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  The problem, I expect, is recognizing the hand type, then understanding how to play it.  You actually can't separate how to evaluate this hand type, from how to play it.  Marya, I would change one behavior immediately...never start with trump aces with anything less than a 10 card suit, with 5 or more aces and 10s, or 11 with 4 of the tops.

Very excellent advice, thanks! Hopefully I can get this fixed before the next update as well. The bots leading trump has been bugging me, but I wasn't quite sure how to tweak it.
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#6
ToreadorElder, you didn't explain your annoyance with the slow bidding. You said "after their partners pass, both should NOT creep in the bidding". What's wrong with that, is it just annoying? I always tend to creep like that myself in the hopes of getting away with less of a bid (or maybe forcing my opponent into bidding too high).
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#7
No.  Slow bidding in an auction like this risks having the other player bid YOUR max before you do.  What if you and the opp have the same limit...either a hard limit (no, not going any higher) or a soft limit (e.g. prefer to take it at 60 but will push to 65 if necessary).

It's less important here, sure;  the probability both of you will evaluate to the same max probably is pretty low.  But it's a bad habit that should be broken.  Players who creep here, in my experience, also creep in other auctions where it *does* matter greatly.  The last bids here are all creepers:

50 - 52 - 53 - 54
pass - 50 - 51

Pard gave 20 and captaincy.  Opps are squabbling...why let them have time to bid?  The second example is, IMO, simply the worst possible bid in pinochle.  Takes the opps off the hook if they have junk;  doesn't stop dealer from giving meld, or showing a good hand and letting the save bidder give info.  HORRIBLE.

It can be OK to creep when you're pretty sure you'll win because you've got a ton.  Take that 10 card spade suit and include a double pino with it...your max goes to 80, maybe 85 before pard ever speaks.  You're not creeping out of fear, but for deception.

And of course, if in your style, creeping shows a HIGHER limit than jumping, you can mix things up every now and again for deception.  This is complementary to determining how high to jump...if 70's your max, do you jump there from the get-go or jump to 60 first?
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#8
(06-10-2017, 09:27 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  No.  Slow bidding in an auction like this risks having the other player bid YOUR max before you do.
...
Interesting, that hadn't occurred to me, thanks!
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