Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
A complex hand for discussion
#1
Score is 460-450...double bidder out.

             S AAKKQJ
             H AKJT
             D QQJT
             C AAKJJT

S AKQQJJJTTT +-------+  S AKQT
H QQJ        |   N   |  H AKTT
D AAKKJT     | W   E |  D AAKQQ
C K          |   S   |  C KQQJJTT
             +-------+

             S -
             H AAKKQQJJT
             D KJJTT
             C AAKQQT


[Auction "N"]
Pass 50 60 Pass
- 65 Pass
[Play "S"]
CA CK CK CJ
CA HQ CJ CK
SA SJ SK HK
HQ HJ HA HK
DQ DA DJ DK
CT CQ HQ CJ
ST SA SQ HK
DJ DK DT DA
CT CQ SJ CA
DJ DK DT DA
SQ SK ST HJ
DK DT DQ DQ
SQ SK SA HJ
DT DA HT DQ
HK HT HA SJ
HT SK HJ HA
CQ CK DJ CT
SA HT HA SJ
CT ST CA CJ
SQ CQ HQ ST

The final result:  South pulled 65 on the nose, to make and win.

1.  In 2nd seat, would you bid 50 or 60 with the South hand?
2.  What about the play, by both sides?  What changes, if any, might you suggest?  At any point along the way.
Reply
#2
I know it has nothing to do with this thread/question, but I would like to mutter my discontent with PlayOK's notation.
It puts  TG 's after  JG 's.
Auction and Play tags use different logic for seat nomination.
The seat inside the Auction tag stands for the Dealer, and so you need to shift to the next seat to find who the first bid is from.
The seat inside the Play tag stands for the Declarer, this is more intuitive because no "shift" is needed to find the leader of trick 1.
(In this case, South's trump is Hearts.  I think it was merely omitted from this post.)

While all these things and more can be gleaned from the notation, the way it is styled (with the exception of the diagram) slows my notation reading down.

Furthermore, when it comes to discussing mid to late tricks, it is a great benefit to number the tricks.
Anyhow, that's my whinge.
To date, I have not convinced Marek to adopt my Pinochle Notation for PlayOK hand histories (I'm sure he can't justify the time and effort to update the software).
I also haven't had the time to develop the Hand Animator to use Pinochle Notation.

While it may only slightly serve to improve readability, here is the Pinochle Notation version:

Code:
Presenter PlayOK
Location http://www.playok.com/en/pinochle/

Gamescores 460 450
Dealer Seat1
Hand1 CAATKJJ DTQQJ SAAKKQJ HATKJ
Hand2 CTTKQQJJ DAAKQQ SATKQ HATTK
Hand3 CAATKQQ DTTKJJ S HAATKKQQJJ
Hand4 CK DAATKKJ SATTTKQQJJJ HQQJ
Bids1 Pass 50 60 Pass
Bids2 - 65 Pass
Contract Seat3 65 Hearts
Meld1 CJDJSKQJHJ 10
Meld2 CKQDKQSKQHK 14
Meld3 CKQDSHATKKQQJ 21
Meld4 CDJSKQH 6
Trick1 CA CK CK CJ Seat3 3
Trick2 CA HQ CJ CK Seat4 2
Trick3 SA SJ SK HK Seat3 3
Trick4 HQ HJ HA HK Seat1 2
Trick5 DQ DA DJ DK Seat2 2
Trick6 CT CQ HQ CJ Seat4 1
Trick7 ST SA SQ HK Seat3 3
Trick8 DJ DK DT DA Seat2 3
Trick9 CT CQ SJ CA Seat1 2
Trick10 DJ DK DT DA Seat4 3
Trick11 SQ SK ST HJ Seat3 2
Trick12 DK DT DQ DQ Seat4 2
Trick13 SQ SK SA HJ Seat3 2
Trick14 DT DA HT DQ Seat1 3
Trick15 HK HT HA SJ Seat3 3
Trick16 HT SK HJ HA Seat2 3
Trick17 CQ CK DJ CT Seat1 2
Trick18 SA HT HA SJ Seat3 3
Trick19 CT ST CA CJ Seat1 3
Trick20 SQ CQ HQ ST Seat3 3
MeldScores 31 20
PlayScores 34 16
HandScores 65 0
FinalScores 525 450
Winner Team1


Easiest of all, watch the hand play out, go to Power Pinochle's Hand Animator page, copy/paste the following code, click Submit, then "Step" through the hand.
Pinochle Hand Animator


Code:
% Format "PPN 1.0"
% Site "playok.com"

[GameScores "460:450"]
[Deal "N:CAATKJJDTQQJSAAKKQJHATKJ CTTKQQJJDAAKQQSATKQHATTK CAATKQQDTTKJJSHAATKKQQJJ CKDAATKKJSATTTKQQJJJHQQJ"]
[Auction "E:Pass 50 60 Pass - 65 Pass"]
[Contract "S 65 H"]
[Melds "10:CJDJSKQJHJ 14:CKQDKQSKQHK 21:CKQDSHATKKQQJ 6:CDJSKQH"]
[Play "S"]
AC KC KC JC S3
AC QH JC KC W2
AS JS KS KH S3
QH JH AH KH N2
QD AD JD KD E2
TC QC QH JC W1
TS AS QS KH S3
JD KD TD AD E3
TC QC JS AC N2
JD KD TD AD W3
QS KS TS JH S2
KD TD QD QD W2
QS KS AS JH S2
TD AD TH QD N3
KH TH AH JS S3
TH KS JH AH E3
QC KC JD TC N2
AS TH AH JS S3
TC TS AC JC N3
QS QC QH TS S3
[MeldScores "31:20"]
[PlayScores "34:16"]
[Result "SAVED"]
[HandScores "65:0"]


My thoughts on this hand to come later.
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
Reply
#3
They're using PBN, as you know. In PBN, their rank order is correct. I agree, tho, it's annoying.

Thank you for the conversion.
Reply
#4
I liked watching this hand play out.  There was a lot of patience and deliberate play going on.

Because the Auction is a survival scenario, declarers are justified in factoring 31 points in the Play phase.  South has 21 meld and may wish to assume North will provide ~10 meld (delightfully accurate in this case).  This puts South's bid limit at 62 -- but remember the 31 points from counters is a stretch and the 10 meld points from North is a blind guess!  So 60 is risky and 65 is more risky.  70 is not feasible with the current information.  If South bids 60 and West bids 65, then South must pass and hope.  With the privilege of hindsight, East-West would likely make 65 in Spades -- with 35 meld, 5 Spade tricks, 4-5 Diamond tricks, 2 Heart tricks, and a fistful of Spades.  Perhaps South is lucky to have not bid 60, and that West bid 60 and stopped.  This hand, I think 65 is the magic number for both teams.

Trick1: West's KC suggested a short-ish suit.
Trick2: I would rather West won the trick with JH , but it's of no consequence.
Trick3: I would rather West lead the AD , then on Trick4 lead the second AD allowing East to signal the possession of the remaining AD 's, then on Trick5 West could exit with KD earning a four-point trick.  I am left to assume that West opted to conserve the two AD 's in hopes of making the TD good.
Trick4: With no other good options, South was wise to lead a trump card.  The QH revealed West's weak/short trump holdings.
Trick5: North also had very limited options because it was too early to bleed South's trump with a Spade or Heart lead, and West was cutting Clubs.  North had to throw a Diamond, but they were all doomed to lose.  The QD was a solid exit, but it suggested that North doesn't have an AD .
Trick6: I like East's immediate club lead which set up an easy trick with West's humble QH .
Trick7: Initially, I thought the TS lead from West was a foolish waste of a point since South was sure to trump.  However, this can be considered a reasonable gambit since it caused team North-South to play two "winners" ( AS & KH ) on a single trick.
Trick8: West was wise to duck with the KD and force North to point a trick since West already knew where the final AD was.
Trick9: East was not wrong for trying Clubs again, but West's Hearts had been bled dry and now the table was aware.  Now Clubs were only possibly threatened by East.
Trick10: North chose to sandbag the two Club winners and continued dumping Diamonds.  All fine and good.
Trick11: West continued to conserve the Diamond winners and dump more useless Spades.  This time with a QS -- perhaps the TS gambit was too costly to employ a second time.
Trick12: South conserved trump and dumped more Diamonds.
Trick14: South caught a lucky break when North trumped in.  North was wise to use the TH to either win or force an AH from East.
Trick15: North was still conserving/protecting black-suited winners; the KH exit forced some big trump ranks onto the table -- certainly not a bad outcome for North-South.
Trick16: South stripped the irritating strength from East's hand by leading the TH forcing the AH .
Tricks 17-20 all belonged to North-South regardless of how they came out.

So, let's check the trick breakdown...
Once Hearts are declared trump, here are my trick assumptions (and counters = 2.2 per trick) for each seat:

North: 5 tricks from mostly safe aces (11 counters)
East: 4 tricks from mostly safe aces (8.8 counters)
South: 9 tricks from trump and side-suit aces (19.8 counters)
West: 4 tricks from mostly unsafe aces and a couple measly trump engaged by the Club singleton (8.8 counters)

Total estimate is 22 tricks, so something is gonna give but it proves close enough.

How did it ACTUALLY play out?

North: 5 tricks (12 counters)
East: 3 tricks (8 counters)
South: 8 tricks (22 counters)
West: 4 tricks (8 counters)
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
Reply
#5
Quote:Because the Auction is a survival scenario, declarers are justified in factoring 31 points in the Play phase. 
IMO, no.  31's not the major concern.  It's a legit secondary point because pulling 31 allows us to survive if we don't make, but there's a really good chance we'll need to pull 31 again on the next hand if we go down on this one.  And, both South and West really don't need that many points in the play to pull 31, so on this hand, it's not that helpful.  Yes, you have to be aggressive in double bidder out...but the key for me isn't pulling 31, it's total support from partner.

On top of that, there's multiple levels of thinking.  Everyone knows the score, everyone knows bidding will be aggressive, but no one knows what comfort levels will be. This gets pretty weird, but I'll try to illustrate.

We'll start with West's concerns.

West has 15 meld.  UGH.  Just 15.  That's a problem;  there's some risk of not even making the board.  He has probably 9 tricks...7 from spades, 3 from diamonds, but there's enough question marks to drop the estimate to 9.  9 tricks is 22 points.  Add 15 meld, and West sees about 37.  His partner's passed.   60 needs mid-20's from him...which is a lot wen East is a passed hand.

So, what should West bid?

after pass-50, the options are 60 and 65.  58 or 59 are much weaker, unless you think N/S's auction will break down.  58 leaves North a 60 bid to give 20, in my preferences, and even pass-50-59-60 by North tells South that North's got something.  60's the dead minimum to give N/S the MOST problems.  65 is too high, IMO.  The primary reason is, the odds of it making are just poor.  Secondary point:  maybe it's just me, but it feels like the chance of South bidding 70 and it being *wrong* are much lower than South bidding a bad 65.  60 is already a risky bid, where some of that risk is justified by forcing the opponents to make a tough guess.  65 increases the risk a lot, and just seems to make it *less* likely for the opponents to make a mistake.  I can't justify that part with any kind of theory, tho.  NOTE:  West should always pass on his second turn, after his jump.  

after pass-60, I think West has to bid 65, UNLESS he knows South is the type of bidder to be doing that *with no marriage* or some other BS.  There are just too many South hands that will make 60 too easily.

OH...stupid me.  Forgot an issue.  Pass-50...South might have SQUAT.  N/S may have NOTHING.  Bidding under 60 leaves 60 to the opponents, and the argument above that 60's going to be too easy to make, would hold here as well.

From the South perspective...

South has 21 meld, and the same general hand type as West...7 hearts, 3 clubs, but lower this by one for handling issues.  So, 9 tricks, or 22 points.  That puts South's total at 43 on his own.  60 needs 17;  65 needs 22.  Also, South knows he DOES make the board.

So, should South open 50 or 60?  TOUGH call.  50 is right if West can't bid, and North has poor support.  BUT!!!!  West is also in *perfect* position to bluff!  SOUTH should never bid 60 with no marriage...but WEST darn sure can!  So some percentage of the time, West is just begging South to stretch to 65.  Is 65, for South, unreasonably high?  Because it's double bidder out...and because North, after pass-50-60, can still have QUITE a bit of help.  North's MUCH more likely to have a pretty good support hand than East.  Also, bidding 50 says soooo darn little.  It could be just a save.  South has to anticipate North's problems in these auctions:

pass - 50 - 60     .... if North bids 65, South's hand is not good.  To bid 70, North has to sweat bullets, worried whether South has a real hand or not.  North doesn't know that a double pino and *1* trick is enough for 75.

pass - 60 - 65   ....  North has to play that South has a real hand...if it's a total bluff, as above, then North puts South onto the Idiots List.  North can bid 75 on that double pino, and take the shot at the tricks coming in.  80 might be too high, but it should have a fighting chance at least.  A major advantage of opening 60 is making the absolutely clear statement of having a real hand.

So, the more I think about this hand, the more I think South has to bid 60, then pass if West bids 65.  50 needs 3 things to be the right call:
--West can't have enough to essay 60 legitimately (even if it's aggressively)
--West can't try to *bluff*
--and North won't have enough total support for 60 to make

In hindsight...E/W might make 65.  They have 31 in spades.  They'll lose 2 spades, 2 hearts, and 1 club for sure.  There is a possible diamond loser and spade loser.  They need to pull 34;  I think it will be close.  (Note that those 2 heart tricks will be 6 points for the defense.)  The Bridge World used to run an occasional column called Play Or Defend?  You get the hand, double dummy like this, and the problems were of this type.  Even double dummy, it's not clear whether best possible play or best possible defense...much less best practical play or defense...would work.  

If West plays the hand, then does West start trump at trick 1, a lower diamond, or the top 2 diamonds?  If West starts the top 2 diamonds, East follows K, then...???  If East plays ace on ace, West is toast.  If East plays queen on the second ace, what does West exit?  He will have seen J,J and J,Q from the opponents, so...hmm, that Q is looking like a signal.  Assume West leads a 3rd round of diamonds to East.  East cashes heart ace......then....?  GAH!  There's no good choice.  In some ways, the heart exit looks safest...but I think it's the *worst* for declarer, because the best defense is to lead hearts, hearts, hearts, hearts, and more hearts, because of the distribution of the trump spots.  And all the other lines of play look equally messy.

On West's early play...yes, ruffing with the jack at trick two is a small improvement.  And so is playing the diamond ace at trick 3, purely based on suit lengths between spades and diamonds.  The risk of a spade ruff is small...but the risk of a diamond ruff is quite a bit smaller.  At trick 4, tho, I think West has to try the spade...this is something where we should refer to the suit distribution charts from my simulation runs, but my gut says, the singleton diamond somewhere is more likely than the spade void, despite the suit length discrepancy.  It's probably pretty close either way, tho, so while I'd say West's trick-3 spade was a mild error, the spade/diamond choice would be more rub of the green, if it didn't work out, rather than error.

More on the later stretches of the play later.
Reply
#6
OK, the play after trick 4.

At trick 5, the diamond exit is VERY wrong.  North has 3 club tricks.  West is ruffing clubs.  Why did South lead the heart at trick 4?  A key point is, that West ruffed at trick 2 with a non-point.  That *strongly* suggests he doesn't have a point card to play.  West didn't cash a heart ace, which he probably would do with an initial holding of AQxx or the like.  

ERGO:  there's a strong case that West had no heart ace.  We can't draw that inference about West's diamonds.  So, North can reasonably conclude that the heart at trick 4 is South trying to reach North, to cash diamonds if possible.  That part worked to perfection.  

So once North cashes his diamond winners (  Tongue ) then what?  How can North help South?  Information.  North knows the club situation;  South doesn't.  North has 3 tricks...and South looks to have a secondary club suit, so there may be *4* club tricks in play.  South *cannot* know the club situation.

--if North has NO club aces, then he should try exiting with a fairly HIGH club, to force an ace from *East*, and a ruff from West.  The best case would be for South to have started with, say, AAATxx, but even with AATxxx it should be helping.  

--if North has BOTH club aces, he MUST lead another TRUMP, to try to strip West.  West can't have many trumps, based on the 2 he's played so far and on South's bidding.  And note:  when North, as here, has NO diamond aces, leading the diamond now, with a few too many baby trumps outstanding, risks a club by East (ruffed), another diamond from West won by East, and another club by East, ruffed.  THAT would be ruffing one of North's tricks, and giving the defense a trick they have no legitimate right to have.

--if North has one club ace, the situation's a bit murkier.  I think it's a guess between hearts and diamonds, because the location of the 4th ace is a Big Deal.  From above, trying to strip the trumps suggests both missing aces and a desire to deny club ruffs.  The diamond is neutral;  South's got a bunch of diamond losers anyway, it looks like.  (The bidding *strongly* suggests South can't be sandbagging in diamonds at this point.)  If South has the last club ace...heart.  If not, diamond.  Tie breaker is, the diamond message is clear...lead the diamond.

Finally, I'll point out that if West cashes a diamond at trick 3 (and even at trick 4), it doesn't change anything notably.

There's a lot going on here, so this is a good place IMO to stop for the moment to let you work through this.  If there are any points that aren't clear, or that you disagree with...we can focus right now on them.
Reply
#7
mick pointed out that I missed a bit of meld in the West hand...the pino. Gives him 19. Overall, I don't think this changes West's bidding, as he still only has 41 total at best. It does mean West doesn't worry about not making the board.
Reply
#8
(10-19-2016, 06:07 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  Why did South lead the heart at trick 4?  A key point is, that West ruffed at trick 2 with a non-point.  That *strongly* suggests he doesn't have a point card to play.  West didn't cash a heart ace, which he probably would do with an initial holding of AQxx or the like.

I don't buy that deduction.  If I am West, holding AQxx (or more A's or more x's), I'm not going to give away my most powerful card on a guaranteed (*likelihood of another player having a singleton in Clubs is super minimal) trick -- that would be a bone-headed move which conflicts with the my principle to "Conserve Strength".  The only deduction that can truly be drawn from the  QH throw is that West is not holding any  KH 's or  TH 's.  
Furthermore, I personally would incorrectly deduce that West doesn't have any  JH 's.


EDIT: 
Support for possible Ace:  Also, previous advice from ToreadorElder has stated that it is often better to focus on winning "tricks" rather than winning "points".  Using the  QH 's and  JH 's where there is no contest allows West to win an additional trick if the  AH becomes exposed/unprotected and needs to be cashed.  This equates to more tricks which will yield more points as a result.

Overall assumption of West's Heart holding:  From South's perspective after Trick2 (in my opinion), West could be void in Hearts or have a maximum of  AH AH QH .
This is because the  TH 's  KH 's and  JH 's are assumed missing, and South is holding AH AH QH QH  (the remaining A's and Q's in trump).
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
Reply
#9
True, mick.  It's not a lock.  BUT I'm far more willing to take calculated risks than most, if there's good reason to.  Many won't.  They'll think the ace is at risk now, and will fear losing it.  Of course, it could be argued that South's spade void came as a nasty, nasty surprise to West, and perhaps he was planning to cash the heart very soon (maybe spade, diamond, heart, diamond).

From South's perspective, West's choice of a queen or jack probably isn't important.  The big key is, West failed to play a point, and that very sharply limits the holdings where he has an ace.  He *could* have ATQxx and be trying for a big position...but I'd say that was a major error, given that South needs to pull 34.  The chance of getting that extra trick is low, and West has to be deeply worried about giving South any undeserved points.  

And West might sit on his ace with AQxx.  Would he do so with AQx?  As noted above...he might've delayed a round or two before cashing it.

From North's perspective, South's trick-4 trump still looks like "best chance to reach partner."  And if it doesn't work because West has a trump ace, that's generally OK from South's perspective.  I didn't say it was certain;  I said it was a strong case that West didn't have an ace...not a certainty.  Oh...ok, a point is, South is largely assuming West doesn't have a sick holding like AATQx, because if he does...South's knows he's in BIG trouble.  And part of this is the plain fact that the only other card South MIGHT lead, trying to reach North, is a diamond.  All 4 diamond aces are missing.  

So, if you prefer:  ok, South should feel it's much more likely for West to have a diamond ace than a heart ace.  What's West's hand, if he doesn't have a diamond ace?  Spades and out?  OK, possible.  Spades and ATQxx or AAQxx of hearts?  Possible.  But the spade/diamond two-suiter is more likely, based on South's hand.

What North can't read in, is that South at trick 4 is trying to strip trumps.  Also, South's longer-term plans probably involve clubs;  with AAQQJJ of clubs, South can be perfectly content to lead a small club at trick 4 and let West ruff it.  From *North's* perspective, why wouldn't South lead a club?  North knows he's got no top clubs left.  South probably did not start with:

a)   AC AC TC XC XC XC XC   start with a low club with strong-ish trump, or a low trump with shaky trump.  Either way, play to set up 5 club tricks.

b)   AC AC KC XC XC XC XC   it's fine to start with the club aces, but South can hope North started with   AC XC XC XC  or   AC XC XC XC XC and West is ruffing a club loser anyway.  NORTH, down the line, might also get some club ruffs.  The club losers aren't going away any other way.  South is giving West a trick now in hope of gaining a trick for North later.

With  AC AC TC XC XC XC South MIGHT start with high clubs or low clubs, so it's possible.  With THIS holding at this point, South's not crazy about leading a club;  it might well cost the 6th round of the suit.  The TC  has some LATE value.   Not much, no, but some.  

With  AC AC XC XC XC XC South might well choose to play a club at trick 4 because the 6th round is a likely loser anyway, and forcing West to ruff is not a bad thing if West started with even ATQx.  Now he'll probably ruff with the 10 and cash the trump ace;  ruffing twice then sandbagging the quite short trump ace is REALLY daring.

OK...that might be a bit much.  Big Grin  I doubt few Souths would ever lead a club even when it's not a bad idea.  So North can't read much, other than "well I don't want to HAND the lead back to West right now!"  But let me suggest that you swap South's club 10 for a jack from East.  (Can't swap to a king, it'd show in the meld.)  Play it through til trick 4 in the hand animator, and put yourself in South's shoes.  Does a club look plausible?

Oh...with South's current holding, what he does NOT want is to lead a low club at trick 4 to get ruffed, if the clubs are:

North:  ATTxxx (x)
East:  ATxxxx (x)

or of course when North has the holding in this deal.  But in that split-ace case, North will have to win his club ace (when South leads a club that doesn't get ruffed), and East's club 10 becomes the 6th round trick.  Also true if East has AATxxx(x)...the 6th round becomes East's.  MAYBE true when North has 6 clubs with AAxxxx or AATxxx...South's 10 remains a POSSIBLE trick if North can lead to South after stripping the clubs.  Tricky, yes.  But not impossible.  And, of course, South's not real happy about ruffing another spade, should *East* ultimately have, say, 5 hearts.
Reply
#10
From here on out...

Nope.

I keep looking...and nothing is going to work for the defense.  And I have looked *hard*.  I think it's an interesting hand to throw into the hand animator, or better still, deal out yourself and play out a bunch of scenarios (don't throw tricks into the middle, just turn the cards over by each hand so you can reset).

Which is kinda disappointing...I thought there should be a way.  But there's ways to make things hard...but AFAIK declarer's going to make, pretty much no matter what.

So I'd say, feel free to plug it into the hand animator and look at the how things can work for the defense, as long as N/S continue to play diamonds (once North chose the diamond at trick 5).
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)