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A WILD hand "what do you bid?"
#1
Score is basically even...300-280.

In first seat, you are dealt

KS QS   AH AH AH TH TH TH KH QH QH QH JH   AC KC QC   QD QD QD JD

What do you bid...50, 52, 60, or 65?  (The only comment I'll make is if you bid 52, I think you are insane. Smile  )

Now we switch you to SECOND seat.  You have:

AS TS TS KS KS QS JS JS   QH   AC TC TC QC QC JC JC JC   AD KD QD

Yep.  Real deal.  The hands in this game were CRAZY.  

So, what do you do in second seat after 

a) 50
b) 60
c) 65
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#2
For first hand:
For part two:
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#3
(10-08-2016, 09:11 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  For first hand:
For part two:

I disagree with you on this one.  First, I would start by playing my aces of trump.  Those are guaranteed winners while the ace of clubs is not.  While you may think it is a safe play as you only have 3 clubs, it is still possible someone else doesn't have any.  If your ace of clubs get trumped the other team may still not save but they are going to get in more tricks than they should.

The goal with this hand should be not lose any tricks in trump even if it means capturing an ace of trump from your partner.  Ideally, you could play two aces of trump and catch the 4th ace from one of the opponent players.  There are now 12 remaining trump and you have 9 of them and they are all winners.  With 3 remaining trump outside your hand, play another 10 and this will now tell you where the last trump are.  If the other opponent is out, your partner has 2 trump remaining and you should be able to get to them playing a jack of trump after you play your ace of clubs.  If not, just play another trump or two clear the suit. 

Also, I would never play the 10 of trump as the first card as the odds are not with you - 1 in 3 chance your partner has the 4th ace unless he melded aces.  Why would you go against the odds and hand the other team a pointer along with the lead?  It makes no sense to me. 

Even after many years of playing this game,  like everyone, I sometimes question if I made the right bid and played the right cards but in this case I stand by what I would have done had I been dealt the hand above.
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#4
I forgot to add that I too would have bid 65.
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#5
The frequency someone will have a void when you have only 3, is roughly 3 in 10,000. So the bad case is only 2 in 10,000. (If *partner* has the void, great!) Yes, it could happen. It's not materially different. I would cash the club just to get it out of the way while I work the hearts.

While you only have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting partner in hearts, the odds are MUCH worse anywhere else. Say you drop an opponent's Ax. Yes, trump run, but to have confidence you *can* reach partner, it seems like the other opponent must start with Tx. That's getting to be a very specific distribution of the suit. Remember, 12 tricks is an estimated 30 points. If the opponents get in before partner, he may well take NO tricks, and you may fall short.

Hm. Something I didn't do, but probably should. Count opponents' points. Outside trump. Let's say 6 from the black suits (you kick in 2 of those). Pard *probably* can't be forced to concede a point in either black suit. If pard has one diamond ace, they shouldn't get more than 8 points there, barring an unlikely diamond distribution. So it might be safe to play for 31 by starting with 2 high hearts, and reserve the early heart 10 for when you need more. Might be worth trying to run a sim with these conditions.

Oh, and presumably no one melded aces. If someone melded aces, you have a roadmap. Smile That would be critical information. You can also assume that partner does NOT signal on your ace of clubs, whenever you elect to lead it (trick 1 or trick 3). Again, that roadmaps things.
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#6
(03-12-2017, 04:53 AM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  The frequency someone will have a void when you have only 3, is roughly 3 in 10,000.  So the bad case is only 2 in 10,000.  (If *partner* has the void, great!)  Yes, it could happen.  It's not materially different.  I would cash the club just to get it out of the way while I work the hearts.

While you only have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting partner in hearts, the odds are MUCH worse anywhere else.  Say you drop an opponent's Ax.  Yes, trump run, but to have confidence you *can* reach partner, it seems like the other opponent must start with Tx.  That's getting to be a very specific distribution of the suit.  Remember, 12 tricks is an estimated 30 points.  If the opponents get in before partner, he may well take NO tricks, and you may fall short.  

Hm.  Something I didn't do, but probably should.  Count opponents' points.  Outside trump.  Let's say 6 from the black suits (you kick in 2 of those).  Pard *probably* can't be forced to concede a point in either black suit.  If pard has one diamond ace, they shouldn't get more than 8 points there, barring an unlikely diamond distribution.  So it might be safe to play for 31 by starting with 2 high hearts, and reserve the early heart 10 for when you need more.  Might be worth trying to run a sim with these conditions.

Oh, and presumably no one melded aces.  If someone melded aces, you have a roadmap. Smile  That would be critical information.  You can also assume that partner does NOT signal on your ace of clubs, whenever you elect to lead it (trick 1 or trick 3).  Again, that roadmaps things.

Again, I started playing pinochle back in 1967 and have played enough games to know it is possible to the first card you play trumped so even if the odds are low it still happens, while playing your ace of trumps are 100% guaranteed winners.  Starting with the ace of clubs to "get it out of the way" is not what I call a good playing strategy from anyone who is an experienced player.

I still don't understand why you would even consider playing that 10 of trumps and you really didn't give me a good reason for it.  Like I said, if you lead the aces of trump you have a very good chance you will either capture the last ace and if you do you will get in all 11 trump for winners.  I also explained where you've also got a chance you could get to your partner in trump by seeing what fails after playing two aces or possibly even the 3rd.

In my opinion, this makes much more sense than to play that 10 of trump.  Doing that it is quite possible one of the opponents have the remaining ace and that ace could capture the remaining ten and one of the three kings that are left.  That's 3 points you just gave away that you probably could have taken. 

PS  Don't know why the title Rookie Bidder comes after my username as I am far from that.  I'd also be more than willing to play against you except it may be difficult to find equally competent partners.  And since my logical and experienced thinking does not seem to register, I believe I have made my last post at this forum as I've better things to do with my time than to try to convince anyone they were wrong with their examples as you clearly were in this one.
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#7
(03-12-2017, 08:45 AM)pking Wrote:  PS  Don't know why the title Rookie Bidder comes after my username as I am far from that.

Take no offense to the automated user titles. This is purely a distinction of how many posts you have made in the forum. Even after you have posted many, many times, the user title is still pretty humbling. We have discussed altering the list of titles, but no one has offered an alternative.

Anyhow, welcome to the forum... and I guess, goodbye. (Wish we would have seen a post from you in the Introduce Yourself forum.)
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#8
(03-12-2017, 10:27 AM)mickmackusa Wrote:  
(03-12-2017, 08:45 AM)pking Wrote:  PS  Don't know why the title Rookie Bidder comes after my username as I am far from that.

Take no offense to the automated user titles.  This is purely a distinction of how many posts you have made in the forum.  Even after you have posted many, many times, the user title is still pretty humbling.  We have discussed altering the list of titles, but no one has offered an alternative.

Anyhow, welcome to the forum... and I guess, goodbye.  (Wish we would have seen a post from you in the Introduce Yourself forum.)
I actually read some of your comments on bidding and I think you may be more  in tune with how I play. 

As far as an intro let's just say I started playing pinochle back in 1967 when I was a member of the USAF and quickly learned how to play well enough to support my meager military pay.  I've seen every type of player (the ones that always overbid, like to slam their cards when they play them, the players whose main strategy is  to set their opponents rather than taking the bid, etc. etc. etc.  Fun game when you can get the right players but that can be hard to do.  

Regarding the titles.  Why do you need them in the first place as they are not accurate and have no meaning - at least to me.  A simple username should be enough.
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#9
The risk of a first round ruff is reasonable, sure...but it's extremely low when you have 3. The point about cashing it first...if you start the trump, you *can* lock in on the problem there and blank out the side suit. It happens. A common piece of expert bridge advice is, try to make things easy on yourself when it won't matter. You only have so much mental energy, concentration, and focus.

Starting the hearts with the 10 is, I believe, the best chance to reach partner to cash, and therefore to maximize the tricks you'll take. It's not the only one, no. But dropping even LHO's Ax doesn't guarantee a route to partner...or that you can safely try. To be confident that you can reach partner in trump, starting with aces, requires one opponent to hold stiff A or Ax, then have some other things work out.

The trump suit can be handled 3 different ways:

a) 10 first. Max aggression, trying for max reward.
b) A, A, 10. You'll never lose more than 1 trump trick unless the suit split is *vile* against you.
c) A,A,A. Best chance to win all 11, yes, but does risk losing 2 tricks if an opponent started ATxxx. If the first or 2nd ace causes a 10 to show, then there's no real risk of losing 2 tricks.

I'm almost never playing A,A,low...I think I have to see the missing 10 and ALL the missing kings. Otherwise, that loses 2 tricks to ATxx (and ATxxx) in RHO's hand automatically, and LHO *may* insert the 10, thus giving the defense a 2nd trump trick. It may cost a trick to AKxx(x) in RHO's hand if the missing 10 has shown...especially from LHO. The other 2 kings will show up...from LHO or partner. So your trump queen walks over to RHO's king.
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