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Bid or pass?
#11
My bad, perhaps.  I've seen so many players that do only consider 20 cards, or so it seems...or even less.  They play Have Ace, Must Cash...including 4th aces.  Or cash 3 aces in a suit...when I've declared aces.  Or this hand.  Auction was pass-50-pass-pass.  Partner hit with 14 meld, but not aces and only showing QJ of diamonds (queens around, pino).  He had:

AS QS JS JS AH AH TH QH JH JH AC TC KC QC TD TD TD KD QD JD

So we had 30 and only needed 20.  The opponents' meld showed nothing of any interest.

He played his black aces, fetching nothing of particular interest, altho his club drew a Q from me.  Suggestive but not compelling, and he doesn't want to lead more clubs.  At trick 3, he exited with the  QD .  And that's thinking only of his hand...or maybe overvaluing the concealment aspect.  I'll buy the concealment, but I want those 2 heart tricks.  Playing for a third, that 10, is a poor idea;  you can't get trump drawn AND retain a trump entry AND set up the hearts.  Playing 3 rounds of hearts at tricks 3-5 is playing to attack the defense by forcing them to ruff, OR setting up tricks for partner...acting outside your own hand.  

Now, things worked out.  I fed him points;  the way the opponents' cards ended up laying out, they couldn't point their own tricks that consistently.  (And, they ended up in a bad defensive crossruff...doesn't happen often, but this one was.)  A good result doesn't mean a sound plan, tho, and IMO this wasn't a very good approach.
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#12
Oh...when do you enter into this mode? There's no secrets here; you have all the info you need. They've both passed...that means more for the pass in 1st seat, because 3rd seat will never give meld. With more or less typical meld for them, plus 22-ish play...if they need more than 50, it's fairly unlikely they can win.

But that's just off the top of my head, and it's hardly complicated.
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#13
I'm seeking some solid, simple numbers to feed the broader pinochle playing audience about when there is strong justification to act desperately (survival mode), maybe from a pre-auction perspective.
Like "whenever your opponents have 450 or more", or "when your opponents have 400 or more AND your team is trailing by 150 or greater", or some similar formula.

Your suggestion is relevant to the original posted scenario, but this thread has me wondering more generally.
Perhaps a new thread is in order.
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#14
So you think they need spoon feeding?
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#15
Some people need it, others don't.
This forum should endeavor to cover all the bases.
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#16
(09-11-2016, 09:16 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  You are dealer.  The cards have been somewhat nasty;  you are down, 481 to 277.

You are dealt:

QS QS JS JS JS JS AH QH JH JH AC TC KC QC QC AD TD KD QD JD

The auction is pass - 50 - pass to you.

1.  What are your plausible options, and why is that option plausible to you?
2.  What call do you make, and why?I would bid 51
I would bid 51 also as my partner may have just made a save bid with a marriage and no run.  I don't have much either but with 27 meld we have a shot and perhaps my partner has a power hand either in my trump or a slew of aces.  If they do have a good hand and want the bid they can can bid back.  In any case, the situation is not that good nor the score but you that's what you were dealt.
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#17
Whether we save or not is secondary.  The FIRST priority is pulling 31.  While pard's gonna have to have a heckuva lot to manage 31 in any event, if I bid 51, I'm narrowing the field of what works by saying now, he's got to have a diamond fit.  Give him *any* 8 card trump suit and we need fewer aces when we play in his suit.  Give him a 7 card suit that isn't hearts...same.  Give him 7-7 in hearts (as trump) and any other suit.  If the other suit is diamonds, it's mostly a tossup...but he can cash first.  And that's likely worthwhile.  If spades, he cashes his aces, and good things can happen in several ways.  If clubs, things may be even better.  Hearts is WAY better than diamonds as the trump suit in either case.

And, no.  There are quite a few good hands where they can't rebid.  They need a run to rebid, or be *just* short of giving 20.  Do *you* have an 8 card suit when you bid 51?  The bidding's just too ambiguous, and you *know* you have NO interest in playing it *at all*.  You do have enough meld so you expect to make the board;  the situation would be even more brutal if you change the  QH to  KH and thereby reduce the meld.  NOW the risk of not making the board is much higher.  If this is your hand:

QS QS JS JS JS JS   AH KH JH JH   AC TC KC QC QC   AD TD KD QD JD

you're really picking least of evils.  I think passing is still right, albeit by a lesser margin.
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