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Another quiz hand
#1
This one is interesting to me.

Score is 480-470...ergo, double bidder out.  You are first to act with:

AS AS TS TS KS QS JS AH AH TH KH JH AC KC QC JC JC AD JD JD

2 questions.

#1:  Do you start with 50, 51 or 52 showing, or a shutout bid?  Why?
#2:  If you choose a shutout bid, how high, and what is your thinking now, and bidding plan?
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#2
Unless I have a strong notion about the other players which would justify a lock out bid, I will reserve the lock out bid and offer the valuable and seldom available Aces bid.  This gives meld and support and allows you switch gears later in the auction (if partner doesn't want the contract) to competitively bid.
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#3
Is it the players that give a strong notion, or the score?
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#4
I'm seeing 9-10 tricks in my hand, which means I only need 2-3 from my partner and we can take 31 to shut out our opponents, so I'm shutting out my opponents immediately, and then I'm playing poker and trying to read my opponents if they start bidding me up to see if they are bluffing or not. I'm taking this every time, because even if we can't make it, I think I have a good enough chance to keep the opponents from saving and winning to live and play another hand.
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#5
(07-24-2016, 02:27 AM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  This one is interesting to me.

Score is 480-470...ergo, double bidder out.  You are first to act with:

AS AS TS TS KS QS JS AH AH TH KH JH AC KC QC JC JC AD JD JD

2 questions.

#1:  Do you start with 50, 51 or 52 showing, or a shutout bid?  Why?
#2:  If you choose a shutout bid, how high, and what is your thinking now, and bidding plan?
That is a strong hand and I would want the bid.  I'd go 65 with it as 70 would be pushing it. 

I could only give a 20 meld bid which would make someone with 30 meld bidding after me easily able to give a 55 bid.  A jump bid would be a lot less likely if I start with the 65.
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#6
I never came back to this one. Huh.

I agree that the shutout bid is simplest. I have 31 meld and 9 tricks, so I've got 53. Yes, 70 is a bit high...but...it is double bidder out. 70 needs 17 from your partner. That's only slightly over the presumptive 15. You can't pass below 70, so there's a strong case to just bid it right now to restrict the opponents, or sow confusion in their path, as much as possible. The reasonable shot at pulling 31 gives me a second bullet if pard lacks meld.

You could try 50 too. 50-60-pass-pass, you can bid 65 or 70. 50-52-pass-65, you bid 70. 50-pass-52-70, you know 75 is OK. 50-pass-51-60...UGH. I think I'd bid 70. I'd mean it to show 30, which is a slight overbid. If pard thinks it's to play...I'm at 70 again. Pard should NOT bid 51 here, making the auction seriously ambiguous, with semi-junk. Honestly, I would expect him to make 75 much more often than not.

But starting with 50 does open up a big can of worms. 51 and 52 are, IMO, substantially worse opening-bid choices here. He'll never buy that you have a hand like this, and you run many of the same risks in not being able to show the other half...the rest of the meld if you show the aces, the support strength if you show 20.
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