Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
I just noted...
PlayOK does audit games.  There's a PBN button in the History tab at the table.  You have to copy/paste into something, but Notepad is fine.  So I'm going to try to log a few games and get some data for analysis.  I'm still seeing ridiculous things, IMO, like this:




This is a *perfect* fit.  Declarer started trump aces...and dropped Ax.  The club suit (the suit order is S-H-D-C, because this is PBN...look at the rank ordering) set up dummy's QUEENS to win the last 2 tricks, after an obvious crossruff.

And, sure...MAYBE this can happen once.  But later on in that same game, there was this:




Another 16 card fit?  2 in one game?  I don't buy it.  I think the correct...or at least very close to correct...expression for the probability at a partnership will have exactly 4 cards in a suit (combined) is

4 * 20c4 * 60c36 / 80c40

and that computes out to basically 0.7%.  And if anything, this is a slight overestimate.  There's some double counting, but it should be so incredibly unlikely that it wouldn't matter.  So...twice?  No.

BTW, I've also seen declarer get *hosed* by this, because the *defender* gets the wildly improbable suit.  If one player has an 8 card suit, the probability anyone else has 8 should be *small*.

Forum Jump:

Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)