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Your Bid
#1
Came up over on PlayOK.  Your hand:

AH AH TH KH KH QH JH   TC KC JC   AD TD QD QD JD   AS TS KS QS QS

Score is not an issue.

The auction proceeds pass - 50 - 51 to you.  

What is your thinking, and what do you call?
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#2
52
If they pass it's a makeable hand pulling an estimated 23. (22 is strength by my reckoning)
If someone goes higher, it's a pass.
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#3
I'll wait a while to see if anyone else wants to answer.
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#4
(06-07-2016, 06:15 PM)rdwrites Wrote:  52
If they pass it's a makeable hand pulling an estimated 23. (22 is strength by my reckoning)
If someone goes higher, it's a pass.


I don't know, I don't feel much of a push to bid here.
Partner calls a dealer-rescuing bid, then RHO relieves the pressure.
We are off the hook.
To take the baton of captaincy from Partner, I think I need a little more strength.

Our hand is mostly evenly distributed, and only has 8-10 meld to communicate (which is the assumable meld when a player passes).
We have just 4 aces and plenty of losers, and a scarce few maybes.
I'm probably playing this one a bit conservative, but I'll pass this one, see what happens, and wait to pounce with a better hand/scenario.
My pass has armed Partner with true information, if s/he wants to have a go, godspeed.
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#5
It's pushing it to the edge, no doubt. But makeable.
I will say this. The bot would pass because max bid was 51 and bid was already at 51.
I pushed it one whereas the bot wouldn't.
So the bot agrees with you guys.
I told you bot is a good player. Smile
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#6
rd, if you're absolutely bidding your limit, can that be a good bid in this massively ambiguous auction?
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#7
The point of having a maximum bid is to bid up to that maximum and no higher.
If the maximum computation was unsound, then I would go set more than the other team and lose and it wouldn't be my formula. Smile

Given that we bid estimating how many points our team will pull based on looking only at our hand, the process is wildly ambiguous and yet it mostly works.
Obviously to be long term super successful there is some conservatism built into our estimates so that the "maximum" is not an overreach savable only by luck with meshing with a partners hand.

Winning games is the measure of success. I am confident my bots for example (and I use the same logic) will not embarrass themselves going set more than anyone else. Because we don't. Smile
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#8
OK, this is part of my answer, but not all of it.

rdw, you're ignoring the auction.  The prior bidding *matters*.  mick noted this;  we have been taken off the hook.  If I bid here, I'm showing a better hand.  I darn sure can't be bidding if all I'm going to do is pass any bid by anyone else...not this early in the auction.  You're completely missing the communication aspects.

Would I open 50 with this hand in first seat?  Yes;  it's pretty close to a minimum, but it's worth the shot.  I'd ask for meld if RHO opens.  If I'm in 3rd seat, and partner passes in 1st...there is NO WAY I ever bid this.  No call in 2nd seat can make me bid.  It's only partly about what *I* have, and my chances to make...recognize the fact that part of the time, if I pass in 3rd seat, the *opponents* are going set because they just don't have much.  And if my max is about 52-53...they'll outbid me almost all the time when they do have something.   In this variation of the problem, when I'm in 3rd seat and partner has passed, the only way I can play this hand is if the opponents *let* me play it.  Well, when that's the case...how often will it be, that *they* were in big, big trouble?
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#9
well again most of the logic I've seen you guys talk about revolves around passing and hoping the other team has a bad hand.

So I'm not interested in that, and will let you develop your thoughts on it.
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#10
No, rdw, the logic here isn't about the opponents, it's about our side, almost entirely.

First:  what does partner have?  We have no idea.  Was he just saving, or does he have a pretty good hand?

--if he's just saving, then *he should not have 20*.  Or aces.  He might, I'll grant;  some players put blinders on, and think save bid or pass.

If he's just saving, then I am not very optimistic.  I'd open this hand if partner had NOT made a call in front of me, but that's because of the potential that he'll have something positive to say.  I'd be right at my limit at 52;  I'd need partner to give me 15 total, AND not get a bad break, AND have RHO *pass*.  

--If he's bidding to play, then my hand is notably NOT better than his, and I have 8 with 4 aces...so, just about average support overall.  

Plus, if *he* has something very like my hand but with, say, 29 meld...if I bid 52, I'm getting in his way.  He can and *should* play me for a much better hand, if I elect to ask for captaincy here.  I know I'd be at my max at 52;  *he may not be* but bidding can cut him off.

Finally:  if I bid 52, partner and RHO both pass...what, RHO is just trying to steal it cheap?  That's *all* he could manage, is trot out 51?  If RHO can't bid 53, then a significant percentage of the time, he was too high at 51...and I took him off the hook.  We're not *assuming* RHO might have a bad hand, we're working through the possibilities.  

There is no likely scenario where bidding 52 leads to a better result than passing.  EDIT:  2 qualifiers.  It works if partner DOES have 20 and has #1 mis-bid at his first turn, or #2, has 20 meld with, say, a 6 card double ace run, and some other offensive aspects.  He might've had a close decision.  The mis-bid is more likely, but that doesn't mean I want to play for it.
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