Inviting a Duck (Exiting as Declarer)

[mickmackusa]

Typically players who are wishing to exit (give up their Trick Leader status when they are finished leading their Aces) with a non-counter, they elect to fire out a Queen.

But what if LHO (Left Hand Opponent; West, if you are South) has melded Aces Around and you know the exit trick will be gobbled up?
Do you dare to throw a Jack? To tempt/invite the player to Duck the trick (not play an Ace)?

I have to assume that most of the time LHO will be capturing the lead regardless of the led card rank (unless LHO knows that RHO will win the trick), so isn't it better to throw a Jack and save a Queen?

What if the trick is started by your Jack, LHO ducks with a Queen, Dummy (Partner / North) wins with an Ace and RHO adds a non-counter?  That means your Partner is in the lead but only got 1 counter for the trump Ace!  Is it worth it?

My general question is:  When you know that LHO has the Ace to win your exiting trick, is it a good idea to exit with a Jack?

[rakbeater]

I do it all the time because it makes a thinking player have to make a decision. If you lead a queen, then they have to take it with an ace or give up a point.

Getting your partner into the lead before your opponents is certainly worth losing a counter. I would take that trade every game.

[rdwrites]

yes, I agree with rak. Would gladly take a 1 point trump trick for partner to get 2nd lead. In fact no player will hesitate to take the lead with Ace of Trump because a J was led. It's expected because LHO declared aces around. In addition, it doesn't alter the points that would be gained. Both the Q and J are non-counterrs, and partner and RHO will play the same whether LHO threw an ace on a J or Q.

It is simply for Declarer to not waste a Q when a J will elicit same response. At least for the critical first exit from Declarer which is what my answer concerns. Assuming the same situation elsewhere, there are other criteria for suits to lead that could be non-trump but barring those a J of trump would still be led to an aces around imo.

[mickmackusa]

To further state the obvious for any readers that are absorbing this discussion.

Every player's Aces are estimated before the Play phase as 1 trick as well as 2 to 2.5 points.
Because a player should be aiming for maximum value in each trick, the opposite is also true when allowing your opponent to win a trick (keep the opponent's trick value low when possible).

Remember, with exception of some extreme cases, that each hand is going to have losers.  You've gotta lose them somehow.  It is a positive when you can turn your losers into weapons (either by making them winners or making them saboteurs by lessening a lost trick's value).

A player who ducks a Jack lead by throwing a Queen, stands the chance of stripping value from the opponents' Play total.  In one respect, this is good news.

This may create a fork in the thread, but:

• In what cases, is it particularly wise/unwise to exit with a Jack?
  
• In what cases, is it particularly wise/unwise to duck the Jack with a Queen?
  

This isn't a topic that I'm actually wondering for myself; this is more to complete a missing discussion in the Offense forum.
Talking this all the way out will benefit newer players and those who are developing Pinochle bots.

[rdwrites]

to duck and throw a Q on the J giving the trick to either Declarer's partner or RHO makes you possibly 4th lead, maybe 3rd. To some who are into hanging on for the end game that may sound inviting. For others who watch their aces cut right and left it's not so pretty.

There is one scenario and that is where LHO has no aces to lead in which case there's no value in getting into the lead at that point. With enough backers I would duck on that but won't be a factor in the hand anyway.

[TigreLXIX]

Without divulging too much of my personal strategy, I will say that:

• I generally lead with a queen, to entice my LHO to go to the ace or risk letting my partner get a point of his.
  
• There are times when I opt to lead with a jack instead.  I will not elaborate on when I do so in this Forum.
  

As I was writing this, I also thought about what it means from the first Defender's (i.e., Declarer's LHO's) perspective, and had an interesting revelation.  Consider that the average trick is worth 2.4 or 2.5 points - essentially, all you need to know is that it's more than 2.  If my RHO exits with a non-pointer, chances are this trick will only be worth at most 2 points, or my partner will win the trick.  What I mean is that:

• if I play an ace, given a choice my LHO will play a nonpointer and my partner will play a point. (Trick value = 2 points)
  
• If Declarer leads a queen and I am forced to play a pointer but don't play an ace (either because I don't have one or choose not to):
  • If my LHO plays an ace, given a choice my partner will play a nonpointer.  (Trick value = 2 points)
    
  • If my LHO doesn't have an ace, (s)he will play a pointer if forced to or a nonpointer and my partner will take the trick. (Trick value = 2 or 3 points)
    
• If Declarer plays a jack and I play a queen:
  • If my LHO takes the trick (presumably with an ace), given a choice my partner will play a nonpointer.  (Trick value = 1 point)
    
  • If my LHO cannot win the trick, (s)he will be forced to play a point unless (s)he doesn't have one, and my partner will play a higher point.  (Trick value = 1 or 2 points)
    

So would it make more sense, unless there is an obvious reason to get the lead, for me to let the Declarer's exit go regardless of the Declarer's exit card?  Obviously, we're talking about a fraction of a point - but given my earlier analysis of real hand histories, it seems like tricks 9-13 or so are worth more than the earlier tricks, so perhaps it's better to get in later.  I know there are many other factors that need to be examined, but I'm just throwing it out there.

[rdwrites]

Yes, that is the crux of the situation. If it was a winning strategy to be the last with Aces then DD Pinochle would be exact opposite of what we do, everyone would be ducking the lead and trying to get out of the lead like Hearts. That is not a winning strategy. There is a thought here that hands can be put into no trump pretty regularly and last Aces or high cards will walk instead of getting cut.

If most people thought that was true, we'd all be playing like Hearts and ducking the lead. The reality is someone else will get a cheap tricks with Tens and Aces will be end up being trumped. I mean if Aces were played, it would be Tens taking the tricks at the end. Does trump get run out and Tens take tricks at the end? Sure, it happens, but not to where you wouldn't want to get the second or third lead and get your aces out. Of course the fourth lead would hang on to their aces.

[mickmackusa]

It is interesting how these fundamental principles intertwine with accepted tactics; and they sometimes are at odds with one another.

Sometimes we think "A penny saved is a penny earned", or "A penny denied is a penny stolen", but sometimes we use tactics that disregard points as a necessary sacrifice for keeping our team in the lead.

Perspective is integral in these discussions.
Let's find the irony in our actions and figure out why we do what we do.  (Did I mention my wife is a neuroscientist? ...we have these types of discussions all the time.)

[rdwrites]

wow you are lucky. Although someone who can talk DD Pinochle is just as good.