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Bidding Analysis Hand #3
#1
East passes to you. Save bid or pass? Other scenarios?


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#2
If this was a question on an exam, your score for it would be 0.

Give 20. This is OVERWHELMINGLY the best option. Were this the Bridge World's Master Solver's Club, giving 20 gets 100, and anything else gets 0.

This is why I make the points in the way I make them. DON'T get trapped into the reflexive mode that is pretty strongly implied by the "do you save or pass" comment.
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#3
I'll expand on the comments a bit more...

1. When my partner passes in save position, I tend to get somewhat cautious. Most players are well aware of the risk in passing: if I don't have a marriage, we're dead unless 3rd seat bails us out. That's why some players give the save with ANY marriage, even with total junk. Obviously, the pass strongly limits the best hand he can have; he couldn't give 20. I'll play that partner has about 10 typically, and 15 only when my hand dictates extra aggression. This is not a weak hand at all; it's a very, very good support hand. If dealer's got a basic 6 trick hand, pulling 31 is quite possible.

2. Pass-50 has NO constructive value. We'll all make the bid on any of these hands:
Sp TTJJJ He AKKJ Di ATQJ Cl TTKQJJJ (and this isn't minimum by ANY stretch)
Sp ATKQQJJ He AKKJ Di TTQJ Cl ATKQJ (a bare minimum 1st seat 50)
Sp AATTKQJ He AAKJ Di TTQJ Cl ATKQJ (a good, solid hand)
and perhaps even
Sp AATTKKQQJ He AAKKQJ Di TQJ Cl AK (awesome hand that might open 60, but also would love to hear meld)

3. After pass-50, the opponent in 3rd seat will often steal all the available space; the *least* he should bid is 58, and I've even foregone that move as leaving too much room. I'll bid 60 even if it's a bit of a gamble (say, a 27 meld, 6 trick hand, where partner's typical 15 isn't enough) because it puts both opponents under considerable pressure, and they'll take the wrong action often enough to justify the times I do go set.

4. After pass-52, 3rd seat is stymied. If he acts, it's on a real hand; he can't act on a mediocre hand. The risk/reward balance, for him, shifts greatly to passing a questionable hand, not bidding. Dealer in 4th seat just needs a pretty standard minimum kind of hand to bid and make 65, so it's not hard for him to bid when it's right to do so...and therefore, to pass when it's NOT right to bid.

So...when I'm in 2nd seat and RHO passes, I'll prefer 52 over 50 even with a weak 7 card run...say

Sp TTQJ He ATKQJ Di ATKQQJJ Cl ATQJ

Remember: giving meld doesn't mean you can't bid again. If LHO passes and partner bids 53, you can bid 54, and even feel you have a bit extra for the sequence.
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#4
I completely agree, Pass 20, you never know what your p might have.. he could even have a 31 hand but not enough meld to make board. Save bid or not, pass meld if you have it, you can always bid again, which on this hand I probably wouldnt, but would be ok to save with.


(09-25-2012, 12:51 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  I'll expand on the comments a bit more...

1. When my partner passes in save position, I tend to get somewhat cautious. Most players are well aware of the risk in passing: if I don't have a marriage, we're dead unless 3rd seat bails us out. That's why some players give the save with ANY marriage, even with total junk. Obviously, the pass strongly limits the best hand he can have; he couldn't give 20. I'll play that partner has about 10 typically, and 15 only when my hand dictates extra aggression. This is not a weak hand at all; it's a very, very good support hand. If dealer's got a basic 6 trick hand, pulling 31 is quite possible.

2. Pass-50 has NO constructive value. We'll all make the bid on any of these hands:
Sp TTJJJ He AKKJ Di ATQJ Cl TTKQJJJ (and this isn't minimum by ANY stretch)
Sp ATKQQJJ He AKKJ Di TTQJ Cl ATKQJ (a bare minimum 1st seat 50)
Sp AATTKQJ He AAKJ Di TTQJ Cl ATKQJ (a good, solid hand)
and perhaps even
Sp AATTKKQQJ He AAKKQJ Di TQJ Cl AK (awesome hand that might open 60, but also would love to hear meld)

3. After pass-50, the opponent in 3rd seat will often steal all the available space; the *least* he should bid is 58, and I've even foregone that move as leaving too much room. I'll bid 60 even if it's a bit of a gamble (say, a 27 meld, 6 trick hand, where partner's typical 15 isn't enough) because it puts both opponents under considerable pressure, and they'll take the wrong action often enough to justify the times I do go set.

4. After pass-52, 3rd seat is stymied. If he acts, it's on a real hand; he can't act on a mediocre hand. The risk/reward balance, for him, shifts greatly to passing a questionable hand, not bidding. Dealer in 4th seat just needs a pretty standard minimum kind of hand to bid and make 65, so it's not hard for him to bid when it's right to do so...and therefore, to pass when it's NOT right to bid.

So...when I'm in 2nd seat and RHO passes, I'll prefer 52 over 50 even with a weak 7 card run...say

Sp TTQJ He ATKQJ Di ATKQQJJ Cl ATQJ

Remember: giving meld doesn't mean you can't bid again. If LHO passes and partner bids 53, you can bid 54, and even feel you have a bit extra for the sequence.

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#5
Quote:I completely agree, Pass 20, you never know what your p might have.. he could even have a 31 hand but not enough meld to make board. Save bid or not, pass meld if you have it, you can always bid again, which on this hand I probably wouldnt, but would be ok to save with.

I get the sense you're not particularly positive about this hand. You SHOULD be positive. This is 14 meld with 6 aces; it's a GREAT support hand. Partner doesn't need a 31 hand...and your 6 aces says he probably doesn't have one. Give partner 21 meld, a 7 card single ace run, and 2 side aces...by no means the world's fair...and 60 will make probably 90% of the time (the bad case: partner names clubs, and has AD,AD or AH,AD, and short spades...so you can't signal, and you lose 2 aces, one to partner's ruff, and a red-suit ace to a defender's ruff). 65 should make much of the time; give partner a red-suit run, which might be 60% of the time, and it should roll, pulling 31 in the process.
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#6
(09-27-2012, 10:02 PM)fun_gal_67@yahoo.com Wrote:  I completely agree, Pass 20, you never know what your p might have.. he could even have a 31 hand but not enough meld to make board. Save bid or not, pass meld if you have it, you can always bid again, which on this hand I probably wouldnt, but would be ok to save with.

Thanks for the post fun_gal. It's good to hear from you in the forums.


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