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Receiving An Aces Bid
#1
In the rare event that:
1. your partner has Aces Around AND
2. the bidding allows an Aces Bid AND
3. you have a hand sufficient to vie for Captaincy.

What are all the ways to use this knowledge toward your bidding calculations?

Basically, you could assume your Partner 4 tricks in the Trick-taking Phase. But that would only be the simplest application.

In more comprehensive scenarios, which draw information from other players' bids and your own hand, how might you figure the trick-taking ability of your Partner? In what scenarios would you assume other than 4 tricks from your Partner? and how many tricks then? E.g If you are holding AGAGAG in a single suit.

Keep in mind, I am posing this question only during the Bidding Phase, not the following Melding Phase. This is because the Melding Phase manifests additional information which can be helpful in the Trick-taking Phase, but is obviously too late to impact your maximum bid calculation in the Bidding Phase.

This line of questions branches from my previous suggestions that Aces Around bids aren't overly important (see my Theoretical Bidding System threads). So that I can compare assumed Partner support in the two cases, please offer what you assume:
1. Partner HAS bid Aces Around -- Assumed meld? Assumed tricks?
2. Partner HASN'T bid Aces Around -- Assumed meld? Assumed tricks?

If the difference, in most situations, between the HAS & HASN'T cases is great -- then that is proof enough that that Aces Around bid is vital to an evolved Bidding System. ...So vital that it deserves greater representation than it receives in the Currently Accepted Bidding System.
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#2
When partner shows the aces, and does not later show meld, it's pretty simple.

Play him for about 25 total. He's shown 4 aces, ergo hopefully 4 tricks, and he's usually going to have *some* bits and pieces of meld. It's pretty much gonna work at to around 25 total...he may have no extra meld, but an extra ace, or maybe a ruffing trick, or whatever.

I never *assume* it'll be more than 4 tricks. I might HOPE it will be...say I have

TSTSTSKSKSQSQSQSADKDJDJDJDXCXCXCXCXHXHXHXH

If he shows aces, I *will* bid to save this meld, in US. It's hard to know just how many tricks that spade suit's worth for sure, but those spades plus his promised aces gets us close enough to try to save. And obviously, I can't expect to save anywhere else, particularly if he's just got the 4 aces.

Another case is when you're looking at LOSERS, not winners. This happens when you have short suits; it's not enough for him to have aces in the short suit(s) to cover the losers, they have to be cashed quickly before you're forced to ruff. So, say you have:

ACACTCTCKCKCQCJCADADTDTDKDQDKSQSTHTHKHQH

This is a near-31 hand. If he gives aces, there's a darn good chance one of your spade losers goes away on his ace, and you have a 2 in 3 chance to reach him in clubs or diamonds. It also helps that you know diamonds can be set up very quickly. You can expect 5 diamond tricks...one from partner, 4 from your hand. His aces let you *plan* the entire hand prior to trick 1...subject to revision on seeing the melds, QC at trick 1, plan to get diamonds set up fairly early, run trump then diamonds later.

Form a general play perspective...his aces bid tells me he's got 4 of em. That's huge. That's tricks. He's also severing the opponents' communications; West can't get to East unless East can ruff. (I'm South, as usual.) So HIS aces...however many he has...are notably safer.

BTW. the combination of circumstances you mention, is NOT rare...although, of course, 'rare' is rather nebulous. And remember, the converse situation also matters: you have the aces, you can show them, and your partner has a hand. I gotta think this comes up once every couple of games. IIRC, the bids your system allows in are MUCH less common, AND much less informative. The aces bid says a LOT, and there is *no other way* to come close to describing it. If I have to give up a bid that, say, shows 60 meld to have the aces bid...but I do have a bid to show 50 meld...fine, I show 50. It doesn't happen very often, AND it's rather unlikely that showing 60 instead, would matter.
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#3
So to strip it down:

HAS bid Aces Around => assume Partner(North) will contribute ~25 points to the hand.

HASN'T bid Aces Around => ?
I'm sure you've mentioned this in a previous post, but I'd like to have it here for quick comparison.


I think I agree with lofty meld bids being less important than showing Aces. Having 60 or more meld is far less common than having Aces Around, and usually offers a level of support that exceeds what is necessary to win the bid.

I wonder what the statistical probability is for holding Aces Around and being the first bidder (in seats 1 or 2 only). In the CABS, seats 3 and 4 would not be able to call the Aces Bid as their respective partners have already called PASS.
In a simulation, you might look for occurrences like:

A. Seat 1 holding Aces Around.

B. Seat 2 holding Aces Around, AND Seat 1 not holding >16 meld* AND Seat 1 not holding an >8-card trump suit*(ergo Seat 1 is PASSing generally).

*the details of what constitutes a non-PASSing hand could be quivelled over.
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#4
Quote:HAS bid Aces Around => assume Partner(North) will contribute ~25 points to the hand.

Yes, until he explicitly shows more by giving meld with a 2nd bid. Bidding can go 51-52-53-pass-56; he's got aces AND 30 meld.

Quote:HASN'T bid Aces Around => ?
I'm sure you've mentioned this in a previous post, but I'd like to have it here for quick comparison.

See Expectations thread. 15.

Quote:I wonder what the statistical probability is
<snip>

Oh, it certainly doesn't happen *that* often, but it's plenty often enough. And it costs nothing, while giving a LOT of information when you can bid it.
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#5
(08-21-2014, 05:20 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote:  Yes, until he explicitly shows more by giving meld with a 2nd bid. Bidding can go 51-52-53-pass-56; he's got aces AND 30 meld.

So I'll ask just be to sure. What is your total / adjusted assumption of support from a player who has bid Aces Around and 30 meld?

Is it a simple formula for receiving Aces Bids:
Total Support = Assumed Meld Points (default 15) + 10 Trick Points (4 Aces/Tricks * 2.5 points)

When Aces & 30 Meld:
Total Support = 40

When no information is given by Partner:
Total Support = 15*
...which could be 10 Assumed Meld + 5 (2 tricks) Trick Points
...or it could be another combination of Meld & Trick Points, of no consequence.
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#6
Yes, that's right. Note that on the aces bid without showing additional meld, you can count it a different way. He's showing 10 meld and 4 tricks, for 20. Most of the time he'll have 5 more...whether that's meld or tricks doesn't matter here either. Note that you can't normally do that if he shows aces, then meld; too often, he won't have extras beyond what he's shown. You can do that if you've got a particularly offensively oriented hand, when 31 is likely, OR when you have a triple-ace suit and therefore a known route to him. (Then all his aces SHOULD cash.)
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