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Another quiz hand
#1
You're in first seat. What do you bid initially, and what is your plan?

QCADKDKDKDQDQDJDJDJDTSQSQSQSJSAHTHQHQHJH
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#2
Queens, 2 Trump Marriages, Triple Pinochle = 74 in raw meld
(How could partner ever convince me to pass?)
6 Trump Tricks, 1 outside Ace = 7 tricks = ~17.5 trick points

1 or 2 tricks from partner and we save our meld
5 or 6 tricks from partner and we blank the opposition

My plan is to play AH then QD.
The trump are most likely split 9-4-4-3, 9-5-3-3, 9-5-4-2. I would like to see how the trump lie.

50 asks for meld, I don't need meld from partner.
58 shows my 80+ meld, who cares. I am taking control of this hand.
What bid couild partner make that would have valuable information for me. Without ouir taking 20 counters we will get set in any contract from 50 up to 110.
I guess the bid is 110. The value of shutting out the one opponent having 90+ meld more than offsets the chance that both opponents can find out they have 50 each and conspire to outbid me.
Rick Hall
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#3
The chance the opponents will have that much meld is...remote. And if one opponent has that much, AND something playable, you'll never shut him out.

Should have said: Yahoo scoring. The triple pino is 45.
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#4
This is a Meld bid for me. The odds of the opponents having more meld is not very good, so I would let my partner have the opportunity to share info. On a kindle which is bad for typing.
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#5
While the trump is long, the texture is not great.
I get a bit sad, too, when I take the bid, only play one Ace, then relinquish control.

What are the chances that my partner will take more trick points?
This hand has a likelihood to be strangely split, right?
If it is probable that my partner will have a better offensive hand AND I have meld by the barrel full, I would feel pretty good about meld bidding first.
We will likely have control throughout the bidding, so there will be room for some bidding back and forth to see who wants the contract.
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#6
-->
This hand has a likelihood to be strangely split, right?
What are the chances that my partner will take more trick points?
While the trump is long, the texture is not great.
-->
The bridge saying is "one freak, all freaks". If you have unusual distribution, so does everyone else.
I'll pit the trump in this hand aginst Partner's aces.
NOt a lot of trump texture, but you relinquish control with 7 trump out and 2 of them are aces. If Partner has an ace he'll cash it to protect it and hopefully lead another.
Rick Hall
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#7
Here are the split stats rounded to the nearest tenth percentage if you hold nine cards of a suit:

9-4-4-3 23.4%
9-5-3-3 17.6%
9-5-4-2 25.0%
9-5-5-1 4.2%
9-6-3-2 14.7%
9-6-4-1 6.6%
9-6-5-0 1.1%
9-7-2-2 2.4%
9-7-3-1 3.1%
9-7-4-0 0.7%
9-8-2-1 0.8%
9-8-3-0 0.3%
9-9-1-1 0.1%
9-9-2-0 0.1%
9-10-1-0 0.0%
9-11-0-0 0.0%
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#8
When I'm looking at a potential bidding hand, I'm counting probable tricks. Because this trump suit only has 1 of the 8 possible AD and TDs, as the bidder, you lack control of the hand. I count 2 sure winners. This is a great discussion hand by TE, because I will teach a beginner to count their tricks by counting non-trump aces, and to count trump tricks by taking the length of the trump suit and subtracting the number of trump aces not in your hand. In this case 9 (length of trump) - 3 (missing AD) = 6 trick takers in trump. (plus the AH gives a count of 7 trick takers)

Unfortunately this is far from probable, especially if playing the hand like most beginners (AH, QD). Once an opponent forces the AD out of bidders hand, the rest of the diamonds are worthless unless trumping XC after the QC is played. So the AH and AD are the sure 2 tricks.

I would meld bid because this is not a hand with many guaranteed or probable trick takers. Now this hand is probably going to safely win 2-4 tricks by trumping XCs before another player is out of XCs if you go the traditional or basic route of playing AH, QD. So if a hand that will take 4-6 trick takers is a strong or powerful hand to you, then go ahead and open with a 50. I'm looking for 7+ probable tricks before I open 50, especially with 50+ meld to communicate with my partner.

With that said, if I get stuck with the hand, I would play AH, QC and get into thoseXCs as quickly as possible.
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#9
(03-04-2013, 12:06 AM)rakbeater Wrote:  Here are the split stats rounded to the nearest tenth percentage if you hold nine cards of a suit:

9-4-4-3 23.4%
9-5-3-3 17.6%
9-5-4-2 25.0%
9-5-5-1 4.2%
9-6-3-2 14.7%
9-6-4-1 6.6%
9-6-5-0 1.1%
9-7-2-2 2.4%
9-7-3-1 3.1%
9-7-4-0 0.7%
9-8-2-1 0.8%
9-8-3-0 0.3%
9-9-1-1 0.1%
9-9-2-0 0.1%
9-10-1-0 0.0%
9-11-0-0 0.0%

That's not exactly what I was implying. I mean what are the chances that my partner will have a ~9 card trump suit (or combination of trump & aces) equal to my hand's power (statistical offensive trick-taking power)?
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
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#10
oh, sorry about that. I don't have the exact stats, but even if it is a 20% chance of your partner having a biddable hand that can take 6+ tricks, it's still worth meld bidding and giving your partner the chance. The only time, in this situation, that it can get even a little sticky is if West passes, because then your partner could make a bid that could be interpreted as a save bid by bidding +1. I would expect my partner to big 65+ if he has a hand after I opened with a meld bid and West passed, but some of the lower level players will just bid +1. If West bids, and your partner bids, then he has a hand and you get out of his way. I'm assuming we will get TE in here somewhere.
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