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Hand Analysis
#1
In my rush to analyze a hand from another thread, I analyzed the default hand that shows up in the Hand Animator:  http://www.powerpinochle.com/forum/handanimator.php

Code:
% Format "PPN 1.0"
% Site "worldofcardgames.com"
% Date "2016.02.09"
% ID "14550684069590"
% Players "N E S W"
% tableid "53938614-1671-4854-a53d-4a99b6128f49"

[GameScores "0:0"]
[Deal "W:CATKKKQJDATKQJSATQJHTKQJ CAATKQQQJJDATQSTKJHATKQJ CATDTQJJSAATTKQJHATTKKQJ CTJDAATKKKQJSAKKQQJHAAQJ"]
[Auction "N:52 Pass 60 Pass Pass"]
[Contract "S 60 S"]
[Melds "20:CKQJDKQJSQJHKQJ 4:CKQDSHKQ 21:CDJSATKQJHKQ 18:CJDKQJSKKQQJHJ"]
[Play "S"]
AH JH KH JH S2
AC JC KC JC S2
QH AH JH KH W2
AH QH TH JH W2
AD JD TD JD W2
AD QD QD JD W1
AS JS KS JS W2
QH TH AH KH E3
AD QD KD KD E3
AC TC TC JC E3
AC KS JS QC S2
KH KS TS QH N3
AD TS TD KD E4
JC TS QS KC S2
TH KS AS JS N3
AC QC QS QS S1
TS JD QS QC S1
AS QD TD QC S2
AS KD KC KC S4
TH TD TC TC S6
[MeldScores "41:22"]
[PlayScores "28:22"]
[Result "SAVED"]
[HandScores "69:44"]

[GameScores "69:44"]
[Deal "N:CKQJDATQQSATTKKQQJHATKKJ CATKQQJDAATTJJSAAQJJHQJJ CATJDKKKQQJJSAKQJHAATTQQ CAATTKKQJDATKSTTKHATKKQJ"]
[Auction "E:Pass Pass 50 51 - - 52 Pass"]
[Contract "W 52 C"]
[Melds "8:CKQDSKKQQH 23:CATKQJDJSQJHJ 10:CDKKQQJSKQH 25:CATKQJDKSKHKQ"]
[Play "W"]
AD QD TD JD W2
AH JH JH QH W1
AC JC KC JC W2
AC QC TC TC W3
JC KC AC AC E3
AD JD KD QD E2
AD QD TD TD E3
AS JS KS JS E2
AS QS TS QS E2
JC KD TC QS W2
QC KS QC QD W1
JH AH JH TH N2
AD JD KD KC W3
QH TH QH AH S2
KD KC KS TD W4
KH KH QC QH E2
JS KS TS AS N3
TS JS AS TC W3
KH KH JD TH S3
AH TH TS QS S5
[MeldScores "18:48"]
[PlayScores "15:35"]
[Result "SAVED"]
[HandScores "0:83"]

[GameScores "69:127"]
[Deal "E:CAATQQQDTKJSTKQJJHATKQQJ CATKJDTQQSATKKQQHTTKKKJJ CKKKJJDAATSAAATTKJJHAATQ CATTQJDAATKKKQQJJJSQHAQJ"]
[Auction "S:Pass 50 Pass Pass"]
[Contract "W 50 D"]
[Melds "8:CDJSKQHKQ 4:CDSKKQQH 0:CDSH 29:CQDATKKQQJSQHQ"]
[Play "W"]
AH JH KH QH W2
AC QC KC JC W2
AD JD TD TD W3
AD KD QD AD W3
JD TD QD AD S2
AH JH KH JH S2
AS QS KS QS S2
AH QH TH JH S2
AS JD TS KS W3
JC AC JC KC N2
AC TC KC QC N3
AH KH TH KD W4
JD QH KS JS W1
QD QH KH JC W1
QD JS TH JS W1
KD JS TH KC W3
KD QS TS KS W3
TC QC AC TS E3
QS TS TD TC W3
TC QC AS AS W5
[MeldScores "8:33"]
[PlayScores "13:37"]
[Result "SAVED"]
[HandScores "0:70"]

[GameScores "69:197"]
[Deal "S:CATKQDAKQJSAATJJHATTTKKQ CATKKQJDTKKQJSTKJHAAQQJJ CAATKQJDQJSAKKQQQQHATKQJ CTQJJDAAATTTKQJSATTKJHKJ"]
[Auction "W:50 51 Pass 53 54 Pass - Pass"]
[Contract "W 54 D"]
[Melds "18:CAKQDAKQSAHAKQ 10:CKQJDKQJSJHJ 18:CKQDQJSKKQQHKQ 19:CJDATKQJSJHJ"]
[Play "W"]
AS JS KS QS W2
AD JD KD JD W2
AD QD KD QD W2
AD KD TD QS W3
JD AD JD KS N2
QH AH JH KH E2
AH QH JH KH E2
AC JC TC QC E2
QD KC TD JS W2
JC AC JC TC N2
AS JS KS JS N2
AS TS QS KS N3
AH JH KH KD W3
JC TC QC AC S2
TH QD KH JH W2
QC KC TC AC S3
AH TD TH QH W3
TD TH KC QC W3
TS TS KC AS S4
QS TS TH QH W4
[MeldScores "36:29"]
[PlayScores "18:32"]
[Result "SAVED"]
[HandScores "0:61"]

[GameScores "69:258"]
[Deal "W:CAATTJDAATTKKKQQSTKKHTTQ CAKQQJDATTKSAKJJJHAKKKQJ CKKQQJDJJJSAATTTKQQHAKQJ CATTKJDAQQJSAQQJHAATTQJJ"]
[Auction "N:50 52 56 Pass 57 Pass Pass"]
[Contract "N 57 D"]
[Melds "8:CDKKQQSH 22:CAKQDAKSAKHAKQ 38:CKKQQDJJSKQQHKQ 18:CAJDAJSAQJHAJ"]
[Play "N"]
AC JC KC JC N2
AC QC KC KC N3
QD AD JD JD E1
AC JC TC JC E2
AS QS JS KS E2
AH JH TH QH E2
QC QC AC TC W2
AS KS KS QS W3
AH TH KH QH W3
AH TH KH KH W4
QD AD KD JD N2
TC KC QC TC N3
TS JS AS QS S2
JD AD QD TD W2
JH KD JH AH N2
AD TD TS QD N3
TD JS KS JH N2
TD JS TS QH N2
KD QH TS QS N2
KD KH AS TH N6
[MeldScores "46:40"]
[PlayScores "29:21"]
[Result "SAVED"]
[HandScores "75:61"]

[GameScores "144:319"]
[Deal "N:CAKQQQJDAKQQJSATKQQJHTTK CTTKQJJDAATTJJSAKQQHATKQ CAKKJDKKQQJSTTKJHAAAKKJJ CAATTDATTKSAATKJJHTQQQJJ"]
[Auction "E:Pass Pass Pass"]
[Contract "N 50 S"]
[Melds "31:CKQDKQJSATKQJHK 38:CKQDJJSKQQHKQ 16:CKJDKKQQJSKJHKJ 0:CDSH"]
[Play "N"]
AD JD KD KD N3
AC JC KC TC N3
QC KC AC TC S3
AH JH KH QH S2
AH JH TH KH S3
AH QH TH TH S3
JH QH JS AH N1
QD AD JD TD E2
AD QD TD JD E2
AS JS KS QS E2
JC KC AC JC W2
JS QS KS TS S2
KH TH KS QS N3
QD TD QD AD W2
JS TS QS KS N2
QC TC JC AC W2
QH AS JD KH N2
KD TD KD TS W4
[MeldScores "47:38"]
[PlayScores "27:23"]
[Result "SAVED"]
[HandScores "74:61"]

[GameScores "218:380"]
[Deal "E:CTTQJJDAAATKJSTTKQQHATKQ CATKDTTKJJSAATKJJHAAKJJJ CATKKQQJJDQQSAKQJHTTKKQJ CAAKQDATKKQQJSATKQJHATQQ"]
[Auction "S:60 Pass Pass Pass"]
[Contract "S 60 C"]
[Melds "8:CDJSKQHKQ 8:CKDKSKHK 29:CATKKQQJDQSKQHKQ 30:CAKQDAKKQQJSAKQHAQ"]
[Play "S"]
AS JS KS JS S2
JC AC JC KC W2
AS QS AS JS W2
AH QH KH JH W2
AD JD KD QD W2
AC JC TC JC W2
QC TC AC QC E2
AS QS KS QS E2
AH QH TH KH E3
AH KH QH TH E3
JD QD KD TD N2
AD JD KC JD S2
TC KC QC JH S2
AC QD TC JH S2
KS TS TS KS W4
QD KD TD QC S2
KH QH AH JH N2
TS JS KC QS S2
TH KD AD TS S4
TH TD AD TD S6
[MeldScores "37:38"]
[PlayScores "26:24"]
[Result "SAVED"]
[HandScores "63:62"]

[GameScores "281:442"]
[Deal "S:CAKKQJJJDAATKQQSTTQQHAQJ CKQQJDATKSAAKKQJHAATKKJJ CAAATTTQDKJSATTKJJHATQQQ CTKDATTKQQJJJSAKQJHTTKKJ"]
[Auction "W:50 Pass Pass Pass"]
[Contract "W 50 D"]
[Melds "12:CKQDKQSQHQ 12:CKQDKSKQHK 0:CDSH 29:CKDATKQJSKQHK"]
[Play "W"]
AS QS KS JS W2
AD QD KD JD W2
JD AD TD KD N3
AH JH TH JH N2
QH AH QH KH E2
AS JS KS QS E2
AS KS JS TS E3
AH QH KH JH E2
AD QH KD QD E2
JH AH TH KD N3
AD JC TC JD N2
TD JS TC JD N2
AC QC QC KC N2
TS QS AS QS S2
TS QD JC KS W2
QD JC KH TS W2
TH JC KH TC W3
TD QC KC AC W3
TD KC TH AC W4
TC KC QC AC S5
[MeldScores "12:41"]
[PlayScores "21:29"]
[Result "SAVED"]
[HandScores "21:70"]


So I will move my analysis to this thread from the other one, so I don't confuse everyone.   [Smile]

Without even running the hand yet, or looking at the other player's hands, I can see that East should be able to make his/her  TH good.

Let's see how it is played.
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#2
(04-05-2016, 12:48 AM)rakbeater Wrote:  Without even running the hand yet, or looking at the other player's hands, I can see that Easy should be able to make his/her  TH good.

Let's see how it is played.

OMG, East has 10 tricks that I count.  That is an auto save (22+ points), even if his/her partner can't win a trick.  That is a biddable hand and just because North opens with a meld bid, it doesn't mean you shouldn't bid 53 and allow your partner to show you meld!!  After you bid 53, South is probably still going to jump to 60, but at least your partner knows something about your hand now.  

If South is going to bid, he/she has to jump to 60.  With 21 meld in the hand, 20 passed through meld bid, and 20 needed to save, 60 will be made if South can save.  South had to bid since East had passed, but if East had bid 53, should South have bid?  

I count 6/7 tricks as bidder which means South will need 2-3 tricks from North to make the bid. For me, it would depend on the score and how much I knew about my partner.  If his 20 meld bid could mean 16, I would be hesitant to take the risk of going set on a weaker hand, because from South's viewpoint, I'm probably not taking much more than 20 as the bidder, unless North really has a lot of aces, but if that were the case, I would have received an opening 51 bid.  A more aggressive player could justify taking the bid and a more cautious player could justify not taking the bid if East bids 53.  As it played out, South had to bid, and as I said, if South is going to bid, it has to be at 60.

Without 30 or more meld, West cannot give a jump meld bid, so even if East had bid 53, West can't meld bid.  But can West bid 65?

I count 9 tricks for West as bidder.  West has 27 meld. 9 tricks taken is easily worth 20+ points, so if East can contribute 18 points between meld and points from tricks taken, the partnership could make 65.  Obviously, East didn't have enough meld to meld bid, but by bidding 53, East did show a biddable hand. What do you know about how your partner bids?  If East can take 3 tricks, then their partnership collectively takes 12 tricks, which with the last trick, is 31+ points which stops North/South from saving any meld. If they can take 31+ points and West already has 27 meld, that means East only needs to have 8 meld for the partnership to make 65 (and stop their opponents from saving their meld).  An aggressive player could justify bidding, and a cautious player could justify passing. 

 I can't find anything wrong with how East plays defense, but instead I want to talk about the bad pass by East during the bidding phase.  

If East bids 53, that gives West the opportunity to bid 65.  My guess is that East was thinking, I don't have enough meld to jump to 60 so I'll pass, because I have enough aces that we might have a chance to save. The problem with that thinking is that even if you save, the score will be similar to what it ended up with at 69 to 44, which is a net loss of 25 for the hand. But with the possibility of taking 31+ points and stopping the opponents from taking the bid, there is a possibility the score would be 65+ to 0 for a net gain of 65+.  Of course, there is the possibility of the score -65 to 50 for  a net loss of 115, or the score -65 to 0 for a net loss of 65.  But if you are down big, you are aggressive, or you are confident that your partner can take those 3 extra tricks, it would definitely be worth the risk.  But by not bidding 53, East did not allow West to have the option to make that choice.  Perhaps West did not trust East to make that choice!
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#3
Let me explain how East should play his/her hand if East won the bid.  Here is East's hand:

AC AC TC KC QC QC QC JC JC AD TD QD TS KS QS AH TH KH QH JH

First point to note.  With a 9 card trump suit, you can guarantee that you will have more trump than any other player.  Once you get those aces of trump out, then you can make that  TH good.  You don't play the  AH because it protects your  TH  from being forced out and it acts as a stopper to give you back the lead.  Your first lead is the  AD .  Then you play  QC to get that  AC out.  Count the trump cards and know how many are still in other players hands. Let play continue.
South is going to take the trick with the  AC , then play  AS AH AS which leaves your hand looking like this:

AC AC TC KC QC QC JC JC TD QD TS AH TH KH QH

Now your partner will play (in no particular order):  AD AS AH AD AH then lead with a  XC , since your partner should know you are hunting those trump aces.  Now your hand looks like this:

AC AC TC KC QC QC JC JC AH TH

It doesn't really matter what happens now. You will lose one trick to the remaining  AC , then after you run out everyone's trump the rest of the cards are yours and the  TH is good.  You can count those 10 tricks from the beginning if you know how to play it.
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