Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
risky bidness
#1
I was playing a game with a couple of friends at World of Card Games. We were nearing the end of the game, the scores were 451 for me + hitchBOT (a bot), 470 for my friends.

I really really wanted the bid and was determined to take it, despite the fact that I didn't have the best of meld. We were using the "bidder out" rule, and I knew we needed that bid to win. I was going for clubs. Here's the hand history:

Quote:% Format "PPN 1.0"
% Site "worldofcardgames.com"
% Date "2016.03.05"
% ID "14572150661249"
% Players "N E S W"
% tableid "706cd2e5-916f-4834-9995-b7a1ba4afe1f"

[GameScores "451:470"]
[Deal "N:CATKQQJDATTQQQJSAKQJHATQ CKKQDAKKQJSATTTKQQHAQQJJ CAATQDATJJSTKKQJHATTTKKJ CATTKJJJDATKKSAAJJHAKKQJ"]
[Auction "E:50 Pass Pass 51 52 - - 53 54 - - 55 56 - - 57 58 - - Pass"]
[Contract "E 58 S"]
[Melds "26:CAKQDAQJSAKQHAQ 18:CKQDKQJSKQHQ 8:CDJSKQH 12:CADASAHAKQ"]
[Play "E"]
QC AC JC KC S2
AC JC TC KC S3
AD KD TD JD S3
AH JH TH JH S2
QC AC JC KC W2
AD JD KD JD W2
AH QH JH JH W1
KD AD QD TD N3
AS QS KS JS N2
AH QH KH QH N2
AC QS TC KC E3
AH KH KH KS N4
QC KS TS JC S2
JS AS JS TS W2
TD QD AD JD E2
QH TH KH QS N2
TD KD QS AS W3
TC QC TS KS E3
AS TH JS QD E2
TS TH TC QD E5
[MeldScores "34:30"]
[PlayScores "25:25"]
[Result "SET"]
[HandScores "59:-58"]

I'm only asking for advice on the bid... As you can see, I kept bidding up until I finally caved and gave in to my opponent. As it was, I was hoping my opponent would get set with the high bid, and I got lucky - that is what happened.  Since our opponents got set, and our team went over 500, we won. But of course there was no way for me to know that would happen when I gave up bidding....

Question: Things worked out in my favor, but do you think I should have kept going with my bid? My partner had passed first thing, so no clue what was in their hand. Was my friend being over-ambitious in pushing her bid to 58?
Play Pinochle at World of Card Games!
Reply
#2
(03-05-2016, 07:59 PM)marya Wrote:  Question: Things worked out in my favor, but do you think I should have kept going with my bid?

This is a tough one, because you don't have a very strong playing hand.  The diamonds may have been helpful in drawing out trump, but with only 4 aces and 6 trump, and not a lot of make-able 10s it would've been a close call.  On the other hand, you didn't really have a strong defensive hand either, so I probably would have been more than a little worried that your opponent would easily make a relatively low bid - especially since you were holding an ace in a 3-card suit sitting to the Declarer's right, and no really good way to signal if you had the opportunity to do so.  That's never a good position to be in.  Also keep in mind that your opponent didn't meld bid when she had the chance - indicating a strong playing hand.

I probably would've either gone straight to 60 on the first or second round of bidding, or jumped to 58 hoping to force my opponent to 60.  (If the opponent went to 59 after my 58, I would've still gone to 60.)  This decision would depend on my partner's and opponents' skill levels, among other things.  By jumping the bid as opposed to incrementally bidding, you are indicating (perhaps a little deceptively) that you have a strong hand - confident at 58 and probably higher.  This might lead your opponent to even go to 65, just to prevent you from taking it.

(03-05-2016, 07:59 PM)marya Wrote:  Was my friend being over-ambitious in pushing her bid to 58?

Maybe a little ambitious...but when both teams are at bidder's out I think most players try to stretch out of their comfort zone.  The rationale is that maybe your partner has a good support hand; or your opponents won't have 20 meld, won't make 20 trick points, or won't pull 49 total.  If you go up for 60-65, you're still within reach of going out with either one really good hand or two average ones.  I personally would rather lose by stretching the bid a little than to let my opponents walk out with a weakish hand and a little bit of meld.  So I think it was probably worth her taking the risk here.
Reply
#3
(03-05-2016, 09:09 PM)TigreLXIX Wrote:  I probably would've either gone straight to 60 on the first or second round of bidding, or jumped to 58 hoping to force my opponent to 60.  (If the opponent went to 59 after my 58, I would've still gone to 60.)  This decision would depend on my partner's and opponents' skill levels, among other things.
I didn't quite follow you... are you saying what you'd do in my place, or in my opponent's place?
My partner was a bot, so it's hard to tell about the skill level there Wink I'm also not sure about my opponent's skill level in this case - I've mostly played Spades with her. I think her partner might've been more experienced, but again, not sure. I do know that I'm not super-experienced lol.
Play Pinochle at World of Card Games!
Reply
#4
@ Auction, here is your internal chatter:

I have 37 meld as Declarer.
My non-meld-bidding partner, on average, will have 8 points of meld.
We have roughly 45 points of Offensive meld.
With a minimum of 20 points to save, my lower (conservative) Bid Limit is 65.
My trick-taking estimate is 3 non-trump Aces plus 6 trump cards minus 3 missing trump aces = 6 tricks X 2.5 = 15 Counters.
My Partner can be assumed to win at least 2 tricks X 2.5 = 5 Counters.
We are very weak regarding a save, and my trump suit is not likely to be the longest at the table.
Not winning this Auction could mean the game, so I may need to stretch.

So, justifiably, you could have jumped right to 60 or 65 instead of 51.
If you bid 60, you kind of need to be ready to say 70 if duty calls.
If you bid 65, that's pretty much your limit because 75 would be irrational.
The Cat-n-Mouse bidding that you and East did was cute, but unnecessary because winning a Contract for 57 and getting set will have the same dire consequences for you as a Contract for 65.

As Offense, the good news is, after you cash your  AH AS AD , you could exit with  QC and make it to South's AC  .  South could throw the 2nd AC  ; however this would likely eventuate in the Offense losing control of the trump.  It is an unfortunate split with both teams having ten clubs, but West having the most with 7.  Both North's AD  and South's  AD  will rake 3 points per trick, but all of the other tricks will be 2 points -- this is bad news if you are counting on each Aces being worth 2.5 points.  The hand could be played a few pivotal ways; and we'll never know the outcome if you would have been more aggressively/confidently.

Certainly a difficult hand under the circumstances.

I would just like to add, "Holy God, I love my Hand Animator!"
It's unbelievable how much you don't know about the game you've been playing all your life. -- Mickey Mantle
Reply
#5
I agree with the excellent analyses.
marya, here's what I or my bots would bid on your hand.

_ 24 meld
+ 13 trump meld for Clubs run
+ 8 assumed partner meld in lieu of meld bid
+ 20 quality count ((6 trump + 4 aces) * 2) (my convention from my 1983 PC game)
--------
_ 65 maximum bid

Because of the weakness of your trump suit, my system would have bid precisely as you did, the only difference is that there is no guessing where top end is.
The system requires a stronger quality count to jump bid (24, which could come from a couple more trump and/or aces). That also would up the maximum bid so with a stronger quality count and maximum of 70 the jump would be to 60, if opponents bid 65 you bid your maximum of 70.

However, with this hand and quality count, jump bid would not be done and incremental bids done. You would bid one more time for 59 and if opponent bids 60, you would bid your maximum of 65.

Now here's where the difference between my system (and my bots) and a person is. A person with your hand seeing what's at stake would oftem jump to 65 despite the usual rules because if opponent goes to 65 you are cut off. And your formula says you will make 65 so it's not an unsafe bid. It's just risky because partner may have less than 8 meld or play could go against you and you pull less than 20, but the win will go to those who stretch the limits without going set.

So in summary, you had two more bids, 59 and 65, and then win outright with your Clubs trump suit.
Reply
#6
(03-05-2016, 10:28 PM)marya Wrote:  
(03-05-2016, 09:09 PM)TigreLXIX Wrote:  I probably would've either gone straight to 60 on the first or second round of bidding, or jumped to 58 hoping to force my opponent to 60.  (If the opponent went to 59 after my 58, I would've still gone to 60.)  This decision would depend on my partner's and opponents' skill levels, among other things.
I didn't quite follow you... are you saying what you'd do in my place, or in my opponent's place?

What I would do in your position.

(03-05-2016, 10:28 PM)marya Wrote:  My partner was a bot, so it's hard to tell about the skill level there Wink

The bots are pretty skilled, if you ask me.  (Despite the fact that this time it did not give you a meld bid.)
Reply
#7
(03-06-2016, 04:29 PM)TigreLXIX Wrote:  
(03-05-2016, 10:28 PM)marya Wrote:  
(03-05-2016, 09:09 PM)TigreLXIX Wrote:  I probably would've either gone straight to 60 on the first or second round of bidding, or jumped to 58 hoping to force my opponent to 60.  (If the opponent went to 59 after my 58, I would've still gone to 60.)  This decision would depend on my partner's and opponents' skill levels, among other things.
I didn't quite follow you... are you saying what you'd do in my place, or in my opponent's place?

What I would do in your position.

We only won with 59, so if I'd bid 60, we would've been just barely set, isn't that right? [Oops! Never mind, if I'd won the bid, I would have declared trump, which would've given me 15 more meld points from the run, so I could have gone with a higher bid and been okay! No telling how high my opponent would've gone, though.] Which I think indicates just how tricky it is to make a bid in pinochle, esp so close to the end.
Play Pinochle at World of Card Games!
Reply
#8
(03-06-2016, 10:57 AM)mickmackusa Wrote:  The Cat-n-Mouse bidding that you and East did was cute, but unnecessary because winning a Contract for 57 and getting set will have the same dire consequences for you as a Contract for 65.

..

I would just like to add, "Holy God, I love my Hand Animator!"

Yes, it is a very nice tool!

Both my bidding opponent and I are relatively new to pinochle, which I think explains the mini bidding war which went on. I think we were just pushing each other to see how far we would go, without really carefully evaluating the numbers Smile
Play Pinochle at World of Card Games!
Reply
#9
(03-06-2016, 11:57 AM)rdwrites Wrote:  However, with this hand and quality count, jump bid would not be done and incremental bids done. You would bid one more time for 59 and if opponent bids 60, you would bid your maximum of 65.

That's cool to hear, rdwrites! I'm no expert, but hopefully it's a sign that I'm improving!
Play Pinochle at World of Card Games!
Reply
#10
We pick up a few things from here, that's for sure.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)