Power Pinochle Forums

DISCLAIMER
I know that there are so many variables to consider when making decisions like those below (cards melded; whose bid it is; how many points we've taken to that point in the hand; strength of my, partner's, and opponents' trump; is there another way for my partner to get me the lead; etc.), but I'm looking for a general rule of thumb to use when I don't have anything else pointing me one way or the other.  I often have trouble deciding between holding onto my tens in hopes of making them and throwing the points to my partner.

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Scenario 1
Suppose I have
         
and my partner has the lead.  He plays
, .

Question 1 - should I throw the   on my partner's first ace, maintaining my       so when the other ace comes out I will have the top 3?  (I assume the answer is yes, but this will also depend on other factors mentioned above, considering that since I have 6 diamonds someone will be trumping trick 5 - if not before.)

Question 2 - assuming the answer to Question 1 is yes, should I play the   or   as a leadback?

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Scenario 2
Same questions, but now I have
        .

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Scenario 3
How about
            ?

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Can this be simplified even further, to say that if you have __ [fill in the blank] cards or more, you should play the ace leadback and if you have less than __ you should play the jack?

Thanks.

Scenario 1, Question 1:
You have to throw your   on your partners   because you don't know if he has the other   .   Another reason not to hold back points in hopes that a 4th   or 5th card   is a trick taker, is that it happens so infrequently (like single digits percentage for the  ) that it isn't worth the gamble.  You will lose points far more often then you will gain.  TE will have any exceptions, but if you are looking for a general rule, I think it would be to always point your partner's 1st  with your   .

Scenario 1, Question 2:

Regardless of the answer to Question 1, if you have   and your partner leads    , and your opponents haven't both got into the lead yet, then you slam your  on your partner's 2nd   so you can get into the lead before your opponents. TE will fill in the exceptions.



Scenario 2 and 3:

It doesn't make a difference. The same general rules above apply. 



We'll see what other's have to say

(02-10-2015, 05:56 PM)rakbeater Wrote: [ -> ]Scenario 1, Question 1:
You have to throw your   on your partners   because you don't know if he has the other   .   Another reason not to hold back points in hopes that a 4th   or 5th card   is a trick taker, is that it happens so infrequently (like single digits percentage for the  ) that it isn't worth the gamble.  You will lose points far more often then you will gain.  TE will have any exceptions, but if you are looking for a general rule, I think it would be to always point your partner's 1st  with your   .

Ok, let's change things up a bit...I have
         
(same as scenario 1), but now LHO has the lead before my partner.  He plays the first  , on which I play  .  Now my partner plays the second  .  Should I play the    or the  ?

First I forgot to thank you for bringing your question here.  Any questions no matter what, is going to create discussion and help someone now and in the future when others come and read the forums.  With that said, I will answer the question you asked, even though I believe the playing of your    on your partner's   is not the optimal play.   If Diamonds is trump then that changes things, but if it is trump,  how often are you and your partner going to have all the opponents aces?  Rarely and if one of you named trump, it is a horrible play for the bid taker to lead out with their only two trump aces. So I'm looking at this scenario as if diamonds is not trump.

If you choose to throw a   on your partner's   hoping that he/she has the other   , and you find yourself in this situation, you better throw one of your   's. Look at it from your partner's perspective...he leads   and sees you give him  .  Would you think that your partner has   in his hand, or that he just didn't have any points to give you?  

Remember that it is a coin flip when it comes to the 4th   of any suit being an untrumped winner, and it is a single digit percentage chance of a 5th suit   of any suit being an untrumped winner.  Give/take points whenever you can, because the odds are not in your favor.

Your example seems luxurious for your team; you are nearly forced to play in a strong, safe, and simple way.
As far as you know, your team has 5 winners and scarcely a snowball's chance of squeezing a sixth trick.
As rakbeater said, even that fifth trick doesn't pan out in the majority of occasions.

My advice is to not over think this scenario and play the very overt Leadback.
This way if your partner doesn't exit in diamonds, then you can pick up the card table, throw it across the room, and drive home (...of course, after checking that your partner didn't have a doubleton).

In a most extreme case, when you need to save a steep amount of tricks for your team's prosperity and risk is justified, I would go for the and not for a popular reason.
As stated before, I don't subscribe to the  &  Leadbacks; I believe they are counter-intuitive and breach one of my core principles of play.

My principles: Conserve Strength, Appropriate Counters, Communicate Opportunities, Undermine Opposition.

(hmm, I smell a new thread coming on...  I'd better temporarily withhold my explanation.)

OK, case 1...DEFENSE.  You are East.

Declarer, South, cashes ;  for subtle reasons, you should play the 

West is in next.  On his , I have to ask...do I want to be in, or do I want some other exit from my partner...most likely a trump?  The first question isn't what to signal, it's "should I signal?"  If I do want to signal, then probably it's going to be with the .  Save the point;  the 5th round is not likely to be a trick.  However, be aware of the risk.  If partner crosses to you    to   to your , you'll have to cash your   before you exit.  It'd often be much better to not be playing this suit, which you've got locked...but what you have to do, just totally unlocked it.

Note that TWO signals can be in play here, and QUITE useful.  The   is the promise, and asks for the suit to be led.  The   (ESPECIALLY here, when you chose to play   on declarer's play) shows both missing aces, but requests partner NOT to lead the suit.  But this is only for well-established partnerships.

Case 2:  offense

First, you have to have 2 non-ace points, not one.  If you only have 1, then it's being played on partner's ace.

With a 5 card suit like AATKJ...it's very likely better to play A on A.  Save the point.  This DOES carry the strong suggestion that you don't have numerous extra tricks in the suit.

WIth a 7 card suit, you have to ask yourself, what's the chance of running YOUR suit, if partner can strip trump?  So, AATKQJJ...low.  (Diamonds is presumably NOT trump.)  If someone else has 6 diamonds, then your K probably won't hold up.  If you have AATTKJJ, pretty good. 

And this still means, partner's got to be able to strip trumps pretty quickly, and have a late diamond to reach you...when the defense should see the risk and attack diamonds.  CAN this work out?  You'll have to look at the rest of your hand.  Length or strength in trump would encourage me to play the J, and shoot for the extra tricks later.  Some junk holding like Txx would tell me, there's no real chance.

With 6, like AATKQJ....ehhhhh. 
You're always going to be reasonably justified to go A on A to save the point.

BTW:  rak, the play shouldn't go as you suggest, with the ONE pointer card.  You're saying to throw A on A at trick 2;  you have no T left for the 4th round.  With a 5 or 6 card suit, it's reasonably likely that the 4th round won't get ruffed.  It's also fairly likely to be a 3 or 4 point trick, if it does hold up. 

(02-11-2015, 06:35 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote: [ -> ]You're saying to throw A on A at trick 2;  you have no T left for the 4th round.  With a 5 or 6 card suit, it's reasonably likely that the 4th round won't get ruffed.  It's also fairly likely to be a 3 or 4 point trick, if it does hold up. 

With a 5-card suit, there is a 40.56% chance of losing 3-4 points via ruff on trick 4. (and 59.44% for the Ace to win 3 or 4 points)
With a 6-card suit, there is a 53.54% chance of losing 3-4 points via ruff on trick 4. (and 46.46% for the Ace to win 3 or 4 points)
[source: one of rakbeater's spreadsheet - not sure if it is already on the website or just on our computers]

To obey the percentages (and assuming the point swings will be equal), I have to agree that not playing the is better with a 5-card suit, but it is worse with a 6-card suit.

However, there may be more to consider...
Since the risk is 60/40 & 45/55 and players aren't aware of these specific percentages, let's just consider them to be 50/50 for the following notions...

Arguments irrespective to the percentages include:

1. Against Ace Leadback: Perhaps by not using overt signaling, the other team might exit in your suit unaware that you have it locked (Undermine Opposition ~ish)
   
   
2. For Ace Leadback: Perhaps you have a partner who doesn't recognize non-Ace Leadbacks and you really need to get in the lead before your opponent who will rendered your hand worthless. (Communicate Opportunities, Undermine Opposition)
   
   
3. For Ace Leadback: Perhaps you and your partner are losing confidence in each other because in the past few hands Aces kept getting caught.  This touches on Emotion / Team Morale which is not actually one of my core philosophies, but it's food for thought when playing online with a stranger who might get disgruntled and throw the game.  You won't have the time to elaborate the percentages based on length of your suit.  Your partner might simply call you a fool for not putting on as basic game play dictates.
   
   
4. For Ace Leadback: Perhaps you are in a take-no-chances scenario where you merely want to lock down points rather than gambling for more. (Appropriate Counters *some risk of potential loss)
   
   
5. Against Ace Leadback: Perhaps you are in a take-no-prisoners scenario where you need to go for maximum potential points; opting to use the as a Lead rather than a Leadback.  (Conserve Strength, Appropriate Counters *some risk of loss)
   

Find solace in the use of strong, yet pliable, principles.  Fortify yourself against the criticisms of others with sound, rational justifications.  You will find peace at the sporadically hostile pinochle table of life.

(02-11-2015, 06:35 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote: [ -> ]BTW:  rak, the play shouldn't go as you suggest, with the ONE pointer card.  You're saying to throw A on A at trick 2;  you have no T left for the 4th round.  With a 5 or 6 card suit, it's reasonably likely that the 4th round won't get ruffed.  It's also fairly likely to be a 3 or 4 point trick, if it does hold up. 

For me (conservative player), if I was making a general rule, I still say it is better to get in the lead before your opponents.  I'll take the risk that I lose a chance at a trick than to lose multiple tricks by letting my opponent get the lead before me.  However, If those diamond aces were the only aces I had in my hand, then of course I would not throw A on A.  

rak, this is WHY jacks are used as signals. DON'T throw the trick, DON'T blow the suit wide open...play the JACK on the second round with AATQJ.

(02-12-2015, 03:41 PM)ToreadorElder Wrote: [ -> ]rak, this is WHY jacks are used as signals.  DON'T throw the trick, DON'T blow the suit wide open...play the JACK on the second round with AATQJ.

I understand the concept, but in reality, I don't think anyone posting here is playing with the level of players you are.  Most of us are going to look at a   play and are going to assume our opponent had 1 pointer, and no   s, and will not lead back in diamonds except by luck.  If I don't know my partner, and I need to get the lead before my opponent, I'm slapping the   down, because most people I'm playing with won't understand.  If I don't need the lead, then I'm not.  If TE is my partner I'm going   because I know how he plays.  It doesn't help me win if I'm making plays my partner doesn't understand.